Err on the side of caution

After months of relaxed alert levels in place, fears about a resurgence of COVID-19 cases seem to be coming true. The BA.2.12 Omicron subvariant has already entered the Philippines through a fully vaccinated 52-year-old woman from Finland who did not undergo quarantine upon arrival on April 2 because she initially did not show symptoms, according to the Department of Health (DOH). Quarantine exemption for fully inoculated and asymptomatic travelers is part of the government’s easing of protocols in an effort to fully reopen the economy.

The independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research has warned that another surge in COVID-19 infections may happen as early as after the May 9 elections due to the new Omicron subvariants and the massive crowds that campaign rallies have mobilized in the past weeks.

“Actually it could happen anytime,” said OCTA Research fellow Guido David last week. “We are seeing a surge in South Africa and Delhi, India, and these are countries that have similar characteristics to the Philippines,” he added. Based on preliminary projections, David said active cases—or people still sick with the virus—could reach 100,000 should the surge happen, while daily new cases can spike to 10,000. Data from the DOH showed that as of April 25, the number of active COVID-19 cases was 12,639, while for the period April 11-17, the number of new cases averaged 209 a day.

While OCTA Research assured the public that it saw no threat of another major outbreak similar to the Delta variant spike, and that the impact will be mild for those who are vaccinated, “it may not be mild necessarily for unvaccinated people and those with comorbidities,” David pointed out. OCTA Research also does not expect cases caused by the new subvariants to fill up hospitals. “It will not really be a major public health concern unlike the Delta variant which we saw last year, but it will still probably cause a disruption,” David warned.

The problem is that vaccination has not been up to speed as the government and pandemic experts had wanted. Based on government data, almost 68 million individuals (88 percent of the target population by mid-year) in the country were fully immunized against COVID-19 as of May 1, but only 14.2 million of them have received their third dose or booster shot. Studies worldwide have shown that booster shots help extend the immunity coverage of vaccines. The fear among local health experts is that the new Omicron subvariants will be coming in just as the vaccine protection of those fully vaccinated starts to wane.

It’s not that Filipinos do not want to get booster shots. OCTA Research president Ranjit S. Rye, citing a face-to-face poll of 1,200 adults conducted nationwide from March 5 to 10, said 77 percent of Filipinos are willing to get their booster shots, while only 23 percent are unsure. The government needs to reconcile these findings with the low booster turnout as the problem appears to be vaccine accessibility, not vaccine hesitancy.

A manifestation of the marked slowdown in the government’s vaccination drive is the possibility that some 30 million COVID-19 vaccines worth P40 billion may go to waste as they are nearing their expiry dates, presidential adviser for entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion disclosed last month at a Malacañang briefing.

As Concepcion and many others have repeatedly pointed out, getting vaccinated and boosted will help save the country’s economy as the risk of being infected becomes lower. Meanwhile, another lockdown because of a possible surge is something we can’t afford because of its disastrous impact, especially on the poor and the working class.

The government must, therefore, be very cautious in balancing the economy’s needs with the country’s health requirements to address pandemic-related concerns. While President Duterte’s economic team believes that the current situation — low infection rate and hospital usage — already allows the full reopening of the economy, health experts say otherwise, insisting that the virus and its emerging variants are still here and continue to pose threats to the population.

Vaccination remains the big issue. The answer really is to ramp up the inoculation rate nationwide, especially the delivery of booster shots that have been proven to extend immunity against COVID-19. It is easy to say that we can live with the virus, but not if more than a third of the total population remain unvaccinated, while a much bigger proportion of the vaccinated are failing, or refusing, to get their boosters.

Aside from ramping up the vaccination drive, the oft-repeated advice from health experts is for everyone to practice basic health protocols, especially the wearing of face mask. The government must strictly enforce the mask mandate, no matter the loosening of this requirement in other countries. Everyone has a role to play to prevent another lockdown, as all of us will be affected by its debilitating effects.