A conspiracy theory
This is the first time that I have seen surveys weaponized to such a level that survey companies deeply involved in presidential polling will carry a high level of distrust. And I am really sad that SWS could not, for some strange reason, secure a media sponsor for the first time in 30 years. The oldest and most consistently prominent mainstream research and polling outfit was inexplicably sidelined – no presidential polling contract in a presidential race.
What makes all surveys for 2022 suspect is a uniformity and consistency among each other, the utter disregard for the dynamism of a passionate presidential campaign when one candidate stays at one level and so does the next candidate – with 30-35% difference between them. And this consistency actually made enough sneer at it that Leni Robredo’s army of volunteers and followers were never discouraged, only pushed all the more to prove the surveys wrong. And they will be proven wrong, badly.
I would even put a decent wager on it if not for the fact that Comelec had over 60% of the ballots printed without the presence of political groups and media. And Alert Level 3 was used as the excuse, as though thousands of observers would have been allowed to witness the printing. There are essential industries allowed 100% on-site capacity, and semi-essential (including media companies) allowed 50% on-site capacity. Alert Level 3 restrictions are very lame and almost ridiculous excuses for a 100% restriction of witnesses, even 10 or 20 of them.
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would say that the surveys were on a mind-setting mission to discourage political followers of all parties to work hard because their candidates had no chance whatsoever. That is logical enough. But a conspiracy theory needs to be juicier with several plots, twists and turns like bling-bling accessories. We must imagine, therefore, motives way beyond mind-setting. We have to speculate that the mind-conditioning is actually announcing the final score of the presidential elections. That is why the need for great consistency in the numbers and the message that we will have a majority president this time.
The conspiracy also must consider that conditioning a collective mind needs strategic affirmation to echo the message of the surveys. The best results would be a good fit between the surveys and actual, untampered results. That is dangerous, however, for the one who owns the hidden agenda. The dice cannot be allowed to roll without being loaded. If the ultimate target is to have a majority president to have an unquestionable victory, then enough of the ballots have to be printed with a special code that will read only one presidential candidate’s name. Then, Comelec goes ahead with the printing of ballots in secrecy without the usual witnesses from political groups and media.
If survey companies with reasonable credibility were to keep churning out conflicting numbers, as is usual when they are all independent, then the message that the hidden agenda wants to convey will be weak and confusing – meaning no universal mind-setting will happen. A mainstream survey outfit will have to take the lead and must not have a competitor at the same level of credibility giving contrasting figures.
Lo and behold, the only other pollster with the same or superior credibility is eliminated in a manner that is difficult to understand. Simply no clients. The foremost survey company has no client commissioning a presidential poll. Why? How? The plot thickens, as conspiracy theories go.
To cover the absence of the pioneer of survey outfits in the Philippines, other less known or not as established survey firms must be made to do surveys and come up with results affirming the results of primary survey company. This will have to mean that a person or group in the survey industry has to orchestrate the players needed in the conspiracy. Three or four survey companies will end up saying the same thing with a central control system. How is that for a conspiracy so far?
What will make the conspiracy believable is the involvement of major political and money players. The presidential candidate to be favored by the conspiracy and its roll out must have a known political base. Additionally, other candidates with just as known political bailiwicks and billionaires join the dark empire.
It should be a slam dunk. All the ingredients are there. Massive resources, monetary and political, plus a friendly administration. What is the problem when there should be none?
A conspiracy must have twists and turns, lies and betrayals, and the unexpected. Otherwise, a conspiracy theory will not be the kind of stuff that books are written for, or for movie scripts. We must now have the proverbial fly in the ointment. In the conspiracy theory we have today, there will be more than just one fly in the ointment. Without the sense of competition, when the outcome is so definite and unchangeable, the plot falls flat.
Now comes the unexpected to upset the apple cart. A competitor without money and political machinery starts to make waves. The Joan of Arc on a white horse inspires enough people to believe in a crusade and they create the Round Table of Justice and Hope. More people see their knights in shining armor doing battle against those who abuse their power and keep people in submission.
Peasants and craftsmen rise above their fear and indifference to join the army of their Joan of Arc. Most of all, the youth of the land sense the promise of a different tomorrow and rush to the battlefield. There, battle after battle, Joan of Arc leads her armies to victory. A frenzy, a surge, a momentum.
The enemy now knows it has to use its power and wealth without restraint and the final battle will soon unfold. My conspiracy theory must now pause as I try to imagine the last chapter.
