Elections are all about your vote

Everyone is following their own set of numbers to see which way these elections will go. So far, there are three types of numbers—surveys, social media metrics, and political rallies—and they all paint a very different picture.

Let’s start with the first category: surveys. One type uses statistically random samples and the other does not. The first type can be used to project data over a larger population provided respondents are statistically and randomly selected to reflect the population profile in terms of socioeconomic class, age, and location. So far, I’ve seen surveys by five different research organizations with different sample sizes and methodology.

A second type of survey simply invites people to answer poll questions, usually online. Another variant of this type of data collection is to have customers purchase an item, say a drink, and pick a cup with a candidate’s name to reflect their choice. The sample pool is self-selected. The results of these surveys merely describe the trend within the sample. Take note, the results are not necessarily inaccurate; they just can’t be used to project to larger populations.

There are two aspects you should look out for in surveys—the timing and the trend. When exactly did data-collection take place and are candidates rising or falling from one survey period to the next? Historically, results have shifted dramatically as we draw closer to elections or when significant events happen.

The next category of data is social media metrics. This basically follows engagement, following, searches, “likes,” and other aspects of social media per candidate. Here, the picture can be quite different, even opposite, from what surveys are showing. Again, two aspects are worth noting—the data covered for the metrics and the trends. Because of the nature of social media behavior coupled with the flow of current events, trends can dramatically shift quickly. This particular metric not only measures levels of support, it also reflects levels of interest in a candidate. Some people argue that the levels of support are merely reflections of an “echo chamber.” While that may be true to some extent, it can’t be simply dismissed as that. That “search” activity also reflects levels of interest and possibly new sources of support for a candidate.

The third category is one that is both visible and quantifiable and also yields a lot of qualitative data. I am referring to rallies and the spirit of voluntarism. As far as I can tell, only two candidates are mounting rallies of any significance. Some argue that rally numbers only reflect a small percentage of voters. But they tell us a lot more than that. They tell us something about organization, creativity, passion, and character of a candidate’s supporters. All those qualities extend well beyond the reaches of a rally. So far, we are seeing those qualities manifest itself in artwork, murals, collaterals, volunteer work, and other activities. This can have a persuasive effect on other voters and also lay the groundwork for election day monitoring. All of this cannot be quantified in terms of votes yet but I would not discount its effect.

So far, all three types of numbers — surveys, social media metrics, and rallies — paint different pictures. But at the end of the day, only one number really counts: our vote. That choice should ideally be made on the basis of who we think will serve the nation best and who most closely aligns with our values and our laws. A look at the careers and personal practices of all presidential and vice presidential candidates shows a different picture of each person. Those who are law-abiding and those who are not. Those who perform public services best and those who do not. Those who are always present to help people in a crisis and those who are not. Regardless of what surveys and social media tell us, the choice seems pretty clear.

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Guillermo M. Luz is a former secretary-general of Namfrel and served in five elections.

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