Pulse Asia: 2 out of 10 voters change their minds on election day
Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes believes the coming May 9 elections remains unsure and “unexpected events” can still happen in the remaining days. In their March 10-17 survey, former senator Bongbong Marcos (BBM) leads with 56 percentage points, VP Leni Robredo with 24, Isko Moreno Domagoso at 8, Manny Pacquiao at 6, and Ping Lacson at 2.
To others, BBM’s commanding lead of 32 percentage-points or roughly 19.2 million votes from an expected 60-million turnout, is already insurmountable. Some say Robredo needs a miracle to win. For example, if this was a two-way fight, she would need a 16-point increase in the next survey and, unlikely, Marcos must also lose 16 points to make it an even race. However, given the present five-way race, any change in voters’ choices does not guarantee if this will benefit either Robredo or Marcos.
In the next few weeks, we will be watching the “surges” of voter preferences, a symptom of what pollsters say as the “popular vote”. This was seen in 2016, when then presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte surged by 6 percentage points in March and another 9 percentage points in April, taking the lead from Grace Poe, Mar Roxas and then VP Jojo Binay. Also, when GMA vs. FPJ in 2004 and Pinoy surging over Erap and Villar in 2010. But the context of these past elections is different and cannot be compared with today.
Was VP Robredo’s nine percentage points rise an “increasing surge”? Or was it just a “temporary escalation”? Was the “insignificant” four percentage points drop in Marcos ratings a “declining surge”? Or was it just a “correction” of his “peaking numbers”? These questions will only be answered in the April pre-election surveys, to be released either end of the month or first week of May.
In the coming days, all opposing forces should increase intensity in their campaign activities as the election season enters the “last two minutes” like in a basketball game. This is the time for “full court press strategies” for Robredo, and also for Isko, Pacquiao or even Lacson. On the other hand, there is the danger of over-confidence or laxity on the BBM group.
Holmes says if he were in Robredo’s camp, they should try to increase by another 9 percentage points this month and pray that BBM’s ratings will also decrease by 10 points or more. On the other side, the Marcos camp, Holmes says, will try everything to keep their big lead.
It is now time to double up what they are doing. Be present in all political gatherings, and of course, acquire much needed “funds” for mobilization. If any camp loses “steam” in their campaigns during the remaining days, voters will recognize this. Backing out or unification for a single candidate, Holmes says, will also not help as their voters can still go for Marcos and increase his lead.
But between today and election day, Holmes still believe something “unforeseen” will happen in the presidential race, but he also says, it may not come at all.
Are the people really “tired” and are now disbelieving the past 36 years anti-Marcos agenda of the yellows and would now elect his son President? Are they now clamoring for the return to power of EDSA yellows, Liberals and now pink movement? Or are the people tired of both anti-and pro-Marcos movements?
Holmes says “there is empirical evidence that at least two out of ten Filipino voters or 20 percent, change their minds during election day”. “These voters are not gladiators in the heated political conversations but are just onlookers, watching all candidates and collecting their information thru mainstream, social media, peer information, and others until deciding their best candidate for the country.
At 60-million turnout from 67 million registered voters, these are 12 million “swing voters” whose unpredictable choices on election day cannot be detected by pre-election surveys or voter trending. Their actual numbers manifest only through exit polls or final election results.
Prior to election day, “surges” or “increasing voter preferences” are symptoms of this “popular vote” which, Holmes says, is far stronger than the command votes of promising governors, political machineries, powerful clans, and even religious endorsements. In 2016, 67 out of 80 governors promised to deliver votes for then administration candidate Mar Roxas, but failed to stop the “popular vote” for Duterte.
And today, on a different political context, we ask the same question. Who will have the popular vote on May 9?
Is it already BBM, with his commanding lead in pre-election surveys? Or the rising VP Robredo with her drone shots and pink-numbered rallies? Or a come-from-behind win by either Isko, Pacquiao or Lacson from the silent majority?
There is a beautiful and timely quote from former US president Teddy Roosevelt: “A vote is like a rifle; its usefulness depends on the character of its user.
