On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. A titanic struggle started which for now is confined within Ukraine itself. But the danger of a wider and far more destructive war is very real. What if Russia, caught in a quagmire and reeling from the severest sanctions in living memory, lashes out in an unexpected way—such as by using chemical or even nuclear weapons in Ukraine, or by striking at the three Baltic states? What if Nato pushes its assistance to Ukraine too far and inadvertently clashes with Russian forces? There are many ways this war can become far more catastrophic. All that’s needed is a proverbial spark.
History is full of such sparks—sudden and momentous events that have profound consequences for humanity. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian empire, on June 28, 1914, set off the powder keg of World War I. The invasion of Poland by Germany on Sept. 1, 1939, triggered the even greater horrors of World War II. The bombing of Pearl Harbor in Hawaii by Japan on Dec. 7, 1941, pulled the United States into that same war. More recently, the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, caused a wounded and enraged the United States, together with its allies, to attack Afghanistan and commence the so-called “war on terror.”
Oftentimes, the belligerents do not even wish or intend to escalate tensions, but they are somehow swept into a conflict that spirals out of control. Miscalculation by either side provides the spark which distinguishes these armed conflicts from near misses like the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. If the world is to avoid yet another devastating global conflict, Russia and Ukraine, as well as the countries that support them, need to be very mindful of what these potential sparks might be.
DENNIS JOSEPH D. JUDAN