*This article was published by the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (FINEX) in its Quarterly Digest on March 10, 2022.
The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is on its 13th day. Both sides have surprised each other with what they have done, achieved, and failed to accomplish. The Russians surprised Ukraine and the rest of the world by invading in the first place but also in not completing their military operation relatively quickly. The Ukrainians surprised the Russians and the world with the stiffness and effectiveness of their resistance so far. And perhaps both – who consider themselves as racial, historical, cultural, and even spiritual kin – are stunned that they are at war with each other. But recent history from the end of the Cold War in 1991 to just before the current war gave several indications that conflict would eventually take place. It may not have been inevitable, but a series of developments made it more likely than not.
Recent History
Ukraine shares a long border with Russia and their peoples are both Eastern Slavic with a large proportion being Orthodox Christians. Ukraine was a very important part of the Soviet Union, being a major producer of wheat and other foodstuffs, as well as various other raw materials. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became the third largest nuclear power in the world until it agreed to give up these nuclear weapons to Russia.
There were two major related developments that undercut their close ties. First was the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after the Soviet Union’s collapse. Fourteen countries that used to be part of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact military alliance in Eastern Europe, partly out of fear of Russian influence, joined NATO from 1990 (East Germany) to 2020 (North Macedonia). Three countries in particular – the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – used to be part of the Soviet Union itself. Their admission into NATO in 2004, and the fact that they bordered Russia itself, was unsettling for the latter. Ukraine itself has sought NATO membership for some time, and more so since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Second development was the desire of many of the former Warsaw Pact countries to integrate more closely with Europe, which included eventually joining the European Union (EU). But in Ukraine this issue was very divisive. The western part of the country looked to Europe as their future while the eastern part bordering Russia looked to the latter instead. Things came to a head in 2013 when the pro-Russian President of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych, refused to sign an Association Agreement with the EU. This led to the Euromaidan Revolution of 2014 and resulted in Yanukovych fleeing to Russia. Shortly thereafter, Russia moved into the largely Russian-speaking Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and annexed it. It also sent troops to support separatist Ukrainian groups in the eastern Donbas region. A slow-burning conflict simmered for the next eight years. But on February 24, 2022, after almost a year
of building up military forces to the east, south, and north of Ukraine, Russia launched its invasion.
Updated Developments
As of this writing, 13 days after the invasion began, Russian forces firmly controlled only one major Ukrainian city, which is a rather telling sign. They also attacked Ukraine’s (and Europe’s) largest nuclear power plant, eliciting haunting memories of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster. Shelling and missile strikes have been reported even in civilian areas. There is talk of establishing humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians but there is currently much confusion about this. A 40-milelong convoy of Russian military vehicles headed for the capital city of Kyiv has, for some reason, barely moved for almost a week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly expected the “special military operation” in Ukraine to be over by March 2. However, his much-vaunted military has been strangely and surprisingly ineffective in Ukraine – mired in tactical, logistical, and morale problems. Whatever Putin may have intended when he ordered this invasion, it clearly has not turned out quite the way he thought it would.
Russian Tactics
In the First Chechen War (1994-1996), a Russian army severely depleted by the Soviet collapse was soundly defeated by Chechen separatists when it sent tanks into Grozny, the Chechnya capital. During the Second Chechen War (1999-2000), Russia with a young Vladimir Putin as President sent its forces just outside of Grozny and systematically shelled the city into submission and installed a hardline local
government which rules the region to this day.
To overcome the Ukrainians, the Russians have started resorting to the tactics used in the Second Chechen War by launching air and artillery strikes at safe distances from Ukraine’s cities. Civilian casualties have started to mount and will almost certainly escalate. This will enrage Ukrainians and the international community, as well as unnerve many Russians who consider Ukrainians as close kin.
Western Response
Long accused of being too naïve, divided, and weak when it comes to Russia in general and Putin in particular, the West has suddenly become clear-eyed, united, and strong. They have been galvanized into action by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, at one time a comedian playing a President but now a real-life President demonstrating unexpectedly strong leadership during an existential crisis for his country. The Ukrainians may not win in the end, but for now at least, they have certainly caught the world’s attention and garnered much of its support.
Russia’s invasion has been almost universally condemned by the international community as shown by the United Nations General Assembly vote of 141-5 (with 35 abstentions) on March 3. Massive military aid is flowing to Ukraine from numerous countries. Nations bordering Ukraine to the west have also opened their borders to take in refugees from the conflict. Other countries far from the region have also been trying to find their own ways to support Ukraine.
Crippling economic sanctions have been quickly imposed on Russia, its oligarchs, and Putin himself. Travel bans were introduced and air spaces have been closed. Investors have withdrawn from major projects in Russia. The Russian ruble plunged by 30% in one day. Half of the Russian Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves have been frozen. Each day, many global companies announce that they are withdrawing from or otherwise ceasing business dealings with Russia. Russians are queuing at ATMs to get cash – preferably in US dollars. An outright ban on the purchase of Russian oil is presently being discussed which would strike at the very heart of the Russian economy. Even without such an oil ban, however, a steep economic recession in Russia is all but certain.
Sports associations and international organizations have also cancelled tournaments and events. Russian teams have been banned from participating and leading Russian cultural figures outside of Russia have been pressured to condemn the invasion or be forced to step aside. Putin has been stripped of his honorary black belt by World Taekwondo and his honorary presidency by the International Judo Federation – trivial matters in the grand scheme of things but a stunning rebuke for the leader of a major world power.
Danger Ahead
But before people let themselves feel overly excited or even joyful about these developments – a Russian invasion bogging down in the face of determined resistance from Ukraine aided by near-universal support from the international community – they should pause for a moment to consider just how dangerous these next few weeks will be for world peace and security. Historically, when Russia feels besieged, it tends to lash out.
Putin has already threatened to use nuclear weapons twice in less than a week – first by warning of consequences “never seen in your history” for those countries that interfere with his invasion of Ukraine, and second by publicly putting Russia’s nuclear forces on a “special state of combat duty” ostensibly because of “aggressive statements” from NATO. Sticks and stones may not hurt Putin’s bones, but blunt words apparently do.
This is where the great danger well and truly lies: a paranoid and angry Putin, whose regime tightly controls the Russian media, leading or misleading a Russian populace that feels, rightly or wrongly, threatened and besieged by the West. He might lash out in unpredictable ways and miscalculate the response of his enemies, real or imagined, because of an invasion that will soon become a quagmire.
Putin’s Dilemma
If the invasion of Ukraine fails, if too many Russian soldiers and Ukrainians die, Putin is finished. If he orders a retreat without a diplomatic off-ramp and if the Russian economy tanks, Putin is finished. More likely than not, therefore, he is finished. The Russian military, upset at his handling of the invasion, may depose him. The Russian public, once they realize the catastrophic folly Putin has caused by invading Ukraine, may finally revolt against him. His inner circle, seeing the proverbial writing on the wall, may even move against him. But none of these scenarios is likely to happen very soon.
What might Putin do before he is well and truly finished? Could he do the unthinkable and launch a full nuclear strike against the West? Probably not. But could he launch a more limited one on the western part of Ukraine close to the Polish border and claim that this is to prevent NATO from entering Ukraine? Probably yes. After all, Ukraine is not a member of NATO that the alliance would be treaty-bound to defend. Or could Putin launch a nuclear strike off the Baltic coasts of NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia as a truly terrifying warning of what he is prepared to do if he does not get his way? The answer is also probably yes.
What is unthinkable for a rational world leader, even one under tremendous pressure, is vastly different from what an authoritarian, paranoid, and angry leader who feels personally and mortally threatened will consider as such. Think of Roman Emperor Nero playing a fiddle while Rome burned – but in this case it is a European country (Ukraine) and Europe itself or even much of the world that might be consumed by the flames.
Or perhaps more immediately, could Putin order a massive cyberwarfare attack on one or more of the 30 NATO member-countries? Russia’s cyberwarfare capabilities are formidable. What if such an attack, while not involving conventional weapons of war, causes deaths in any of these countries – such as patients dying in hospitals because the electricity supply was cut off by the cyberwarfare attack? What if NATO military assets are targeted but there are no human casualties? Would these actions trigger Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense? If not, then where will NATO draw the line? And would Putin even bother finding out where such line was?
Of course, things may turn out very differently. Putin, widely considered to be a very smart, calculating, and wily leader, might decide to cut his losses, withdraw from Ukraine, and try to ride out the inevitable political storm. His generals may even force him to do so. Or the Russian population, angered by a war that they probably did not want to begin with, may ironically oust him Ukrainian-style like in the Euromaidan Revolution of 2014. These may seem unlikely for now, but anything is possible.
Next Moves
Whatever one thinks of Putin, he is a consummate survivor. In 22 years in power, he has transformed Russia from the weak and chaotic state which emerged from the Soviet collapse to a rejuvenated power on the global stage. This is the reason he has so much support within Russia, which matters again in international affairs if only because it has a lot of oil and a very powerful military. It cannot be ignored, and many Russians give Putin much of the credit for that.
Add the near total monopoly of the state media when it comes to the information seen and heard by the Russian public and one can see how Putin’s support at home, while not as high as before, is still quite strong. He can still count on the support of the Russian public, tenuous or even misguided such support may be. He still has the political power and military command authority to do something utterly unimaginable since the end of the Cold War – to start, intentionally or otherwise, World War 3.
So, the next time people think about this Russo-Ukraine War, they shouldn’t be carried away by the righteous and sometimes triumphalist tone of the Western media. Even if much of what they say may be true, and for the record this writer believes that to be the case, that is not the point being made here. The point is that a country such as Russia, led by a leader like Putin, has a breaking point before it lashes out. And when a country with so many nuclear weapons reaches that breaking point and does indeed lash out, the rest is simply moot and academic.
So do spare a moment and a prayer for Putin. Never in the history of humanity has one man had the power to cause global annihilation simply because he is, rightly or wrongly, angry. If he lashes out, he will be Nero playing with thousands of nuclear weapons rather than an off-pitch fiddle. Right now, he is in a well-fortified palace, villa, or military command center somewhere in the vast expanses of Russia – alone, angry, and paranoid – nursing a lot of grudges against numerous enemies, real and
imagined.
No one knows what is going on in Putin’s mind. No one knows if he is prepared to start World War 3. No one knows what line he is not willing to cross. Now that is truly disturbing, isn’t it?
About the Author
Atty. Dennis Joseph D. Judan is a Philippine lawyer with a keen interest in world history and geopolitics. He is the author of a book entitled Philippine Visas and Work Permits (A Quick Guide to Philippine Immigration) and is the Managing Partner of Judan Law Offices, a law firm primarily engaged in company formation, business registration, legal advisory, labor law, immigration law, real estate law and commercial litigation. He is a licensed real estate broker, having garnered 6th place in the 2011 Board Examinations for Real Estate Brokers conducted by the Professional Regulation Commission (PRC). He is also a licensed real estate appraiser, having garnered 5th place in the 2011 Board Examinations for Real Estate Appraisers conducted by the PRC. He is actively engaged in legal and consulting work for numerous companies and organizations in the Philippines. He may be reached by email at ddjudan@judanlaw.com.