Crucial days left to change projected May 9 poll results

If one refers to the pre-election surveys of the Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia, maybe it is all over but the counting. But still, political analysts predict that Bongbong Marcos’ big lead will fall sharply on election day. They also hope that his continued non-attendance on several media sponsored face-offs, and even the official Comelec debates in this campaign period, will trigger voter dissatisfaction.

His snub of GMA-7’s Jessica Soho and the Kapisanan ng mga Brodkaster ng Pilipinas (KBP) Presidential forum was heavily criticized by fellow candidates and attacked viciously by mainstream media. But on the contrary, it improved his poll rankings. 

SWS’ January 28-31 survey showed Bongbong increase his lead to 50 percent from 43 percent  in October 2021, up by seven points. VP Leni Robredo, despite heavy media support, dropped slightly to 19 percent from 20 percent also in October. Undecided on this survey was estimated at only 3 percent, while margin of error is also at +-3 percent.  

Assuming a 60-million voter turnout, from a total of 67.5 million registered voters, Bongbong’s projected vote at 50 percent is 30 million votes compared to Robredo’s 19 percent or 11.4 million votes. Hence, the difference  is a huge 18.6 million votes.

Pulse Asia’s January 19-24 survey is almost the same story. Bongbong got 60 percent compared to 47 percent in October, up 13 percent. Robredo faltered to 16 percent from a rising 18 percent in October, losing two percent. In projected votes, Bongbong would be getting 36 million votes against Robredo’s 10.8 million votes or a difference of 25.2 million votes.

I remember the homestretch surveys among Liberal Party’s former President Benigno Aquino III, Nacionalista Party’s Manny Villar and PMP’s Erap Estrada in the 2010 presidential elections. Pulse Asia’s April 23-25 survey had Pnoy at 39 percent (13.65 million voters) over Villar and former President Erap Estrada who both tied for second place at 20 percent (7 million votes each). 

SWS’s May 2-3 survey showed Pnoy at 42 percent (14.7 million votes), Estrada at 20 percent (7 million votes) and Villar at 19 percent (6.65 million votes). Thus, Pnoy’s projected lead prior to the election day was 6.65 million to 7.7 million votes over Estrada and Villar.

The final results saw Pnoy getting 15.2 million votes, or 42 percent of the 35-million voter turnout. This was 5.7 million votes more than Estrada’s, who got 9.5 million votes, or 15.4 percent of the voter turnout. Villar was at third with 5.5 million votes, or 11.3 percent of the voter turnout.

Compare these numbers to what we are seeing now and I suggest you seriously analyze it.

Will these big numbers of Bongbong fall If he continues his non-attendance of debates and interviews? Critics say what he keeps telling us are just motherhood statements and “unclear platforms of government”. But what if he insists on not attending and avoid making mistakes in the remaining campaign days? Will his non-attendance enough reason to lose? 

Some columnists today assert that Pnoy, being the leading candidate then in 2010, also avoided presidential debates, and they are comparing this to Bongbong’s recent snubs. In perspective, Pnoy attended three pre-election debates—first the December 2, 2009 ANC Harapan: The Presidential Forum in UST, second was ANC Youth 2010 Presidential Forum in La Salle University on Jan. 29, 2010, and the third was on Feb. 8, or the eve of the start of the campaign period, when he attended the Philippine Daily Inquirer’s Presidential Debate at the University of the Philippines. 

However, during the official campaign period, Pnoy did not attend subsequent presidential debates organized by ABS-CBN and others. Call it a strategy then by the Liberal Party, but one can assume today that Bongbong knows this, and must protect his big projected lead. Clearly Bongbong’s handlers would not allow him to commit a mistake now that the elections is just 11 weeks and two days.

In the 2016 elections, leaders of the Liberal Party did everything to raise the fighting chance of Mar Roxas against Rodrigo Duterte. Their massive effort managed to improve Roxas’ surveys ratings from 17 percent in January to 22 percent near election day, but still failed to overcome Duterte’s lead. Today for VP Leni, they should do more for her to win.