Running ‘-ber’

Even as the COVID-19-induced economic inertia lingers on, the “-ber” months (September-December) are once again fast approaching, bringing a modicum of relief from continuing lockdown drudgery. As always, the “-ber” months signal the onset of intensified rainy days but are also viewed with joyful anticipation as the countdown commences for the country’s Christmas season acknowledged as the world’s longest Christmas celebration.

This year, the “-ber” months feature the added excitement of the run-up toward the month of political reckoning, October, when party slates for next year’s national elections would be determined. The political games have begun, and we should brace for an overdose of political positioning with the attendant maneuvering, scheming, and attention-getting ploys of politicians.

As in past elections, the incumbent administration is perceived as “llamado” at the starting gate (which is just about now). This is due to the perception of the logistical advantage in machinery and fund-raising capability of an incumbent regime. That machinery includes not just the ruling party itself (especially since it holds the majority of elected incumbents and can field a complete slate of candidates all the way to councilor levels) but also the logistical apparatus of the executive branch, particularly the public school teachers, the municipal treasurers, and the DILG/PNP.

This advantage seems to be particularly pronounced for the current administration compared to those of the past. Consider the House of Representatives where there are a total of 240 congressmen, the great majority of whom are expected to run for reelection. Of that 240, about 200 are in various parties more or less aligned with the administration.

Consider the Senate where there are 24 senators, but only 12 Senate seats to be contested. However, Senators Franklin Drilon, Tito Sotto, and Ralph Recto are term-limited by law and thus cannot run for the Senate. The eligible senators are Leila de Lima (LP), Sherwin Gatchalian (NPC), Richard Gordon (independent), Risa Hontiveros (Akbayan), Ping Lacson (independent), Manny Pacquiao (PDP-Laban), Francis Pangilinan (LP), Joel Villanueva (CIBAC), and Miguel Zubiri (independent). Based on party affiliation and voting record, the reelectionists appear about even between the administration and opposition. Pacquiao, though, appears inclined to run for higher office. Nevertheless, the 12 remaining incumbent senators are mostly allied with the incumbent administration. Even assuming a more successful “Otso Diretso” outcome, a Senate majority for the opposition is challenging.

At this point, the opposition appears “dejado,” but history has shown that the odds are not insurmountable, particularly at the presidential level, though it’s quite an uphill climb this time given the President’s unprecedented sustained level of popularity and thus more potent coattails. The opposition’s selection must therefore be carefully thought out. After five years of cultivating a Leni Robredo presidential candidacy as a stark contrast to the incumbent, it may be a surprise to some if she wasn’t in the end the opposition’s standard bearer. Would the opposition risk presenting to the electorate an image of political expediency that it claims to detest in favor of the political principle it claims to uphold?

As for the administration, the President’s on-again, off-again titillation toward the vice presidency has befuddled many, though it may not be that puzzling considering that a different feature embodied in our copycat US system of government is that our president and vice president may be elected from opposing parties. Our political history is replete with instances of vice presidents (Diosdado Macapagal, Joseph Estrada, Gloria Arroyo, Jejomar Binay, Robredo) who opposed their president in order to leverage their position toward the presidency.

Opposition political parties also aim to at least win the vice presidency to keep a “foot in the door” for a possible political comeback. Thus, the ruling party’s selection of its vice presidential candidate is crucial to achieving resounding victory, preserving party unity, and securing smoother continuity. I will not attempt to read the President’s mind, but he is a more astute politician than many may think and is adept at the magician’s tactic of misdirection where one draws the audience’s attention in one direction with something noisy or spectacular, while the real moves are made out of sight. I’ll leave the reader and political pundits to mull over that. Meanwhile, time to grin and “-ber” it all.

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Roberto F. De Ocampo, OBE, is a former finance secretary and was Finance Minister of the Year, 1995, 1996, and 1997.

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Business Matters is a project of the Makati Business Club (makatibusinessclub@mbc.com.ph).