Willing, or unwilling, or what?

The respondents to Social Weather Stations’ survey question on willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19 were offered five ways to answer: I will surely get it; I will probably get it; I am uncertain about getting it; I will surely not get it; and I will probably not get it.

The first two answers identify the “willing”; the last two identify the “unwilling.” The first and fifth answers indicate the intensity of their feelings. In fact, both sides on this issue are relatively intense. Thus the “or what” in the title of this column refers to people who feel neutral about vaccination. The “neutrals” haven’t decided about it, which isn’t strange since there’s not much vaccine available yet.

By the way, for any question, on any topic, some respondents might be silent (NA, no answer); some might openly Refuse to Answer (RA). Such reactions are also recorded, out of respect for freedom to respond.

The main title of the last SWS report on vaccination willingness was: “51% of adult Filipinos are confident, 17% are not confident about the government’s evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines” (www.sws.org.ph, 5/20/21). Those numbers add up to 68, implying a big 32 point balance with a neutral regard, i.e., neither positive nor negative, for the government’s scientific competency.

The said report’s first subtitle was: “Willingness for vaccination is 1/3 Yes, 1/3 Unsure, and 1/3 No.” Most media cited only the first fraction, and thus gave the false impression that two-thirds of Filipinos oppose vaccination. To me, that is biased, or at least irresponsible, journalism.

Why not cite instead only the third fraction, and thus give the (equally false) impression that two-thirds favor vaccination? That would be biased too, but in the other direction.

The base to which these percentages apply is the population above 18 years old, projected at 70.8 Filipinos as of mid-2021. Therefore the three groups of the willing, unwilling, and neutral consist of about 23 million persons each.

Meanwhile, the percentages of the population fully vaccinated, for selected countries, are as follows: Vietnam 0.1, Philippines 2.0, Myanmar 2.3, Bangladesh 2.6, Brunei 2.9, Thailand 3.3, India 3.8, Indonesia 4.7, Malaysia 5.4, Laos 6.6, Singapore 36.1, United States 45.9 (source: ourworldindata.org, accessed 6/24/21).

The Philippine percentage is equivalent to 2.15 million persons in absolute terms. When not even 1 out of 10 willing Filipinos has been served as yet, the problem is the supply of vaccines, not the demand for them.

The reputation of the government in health-science is relevant. The SWS report’s second subtitle was: “Willingness for vaccination is related to confidence in the evaluation of the vaccines.” The survey found willingness to be jabbed at 58 percent among people “very confident” and 38 percent among those “somewhat confident” of the government’s evaluation of the vaccines; the two numbers average to 48 percent.

At the other extreme, the survey found vaccination willingness at 20 percent of those “somewhat not confident,” and 11 percent among those “not at all confident” of the government’s evaluation. Those two numbers average to 15 percent. It is much less than the willingness of those confident in government, but it is not zero.

Among those with neutral confidence in the government, vaccination willingness is in-between the willingness of those with and those without confidence in government.

There are already many millions upon millions of Filipinos eager to be vaccinated, including many who doubt the scientific capacity of the government. The task at hand is to supply their need. Only after that is done should we worry about the hesitant and the resistant.

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