Reliable power (1)

I’ve talked of this before (April 25, 2019) so I’ll be somewhat repetitive. But time is running out for this administration to make the plunge. And I think it has to — if we want clean, reliable, and hopefully lower-cost power.

The recent shortages in power stresses the urgency of acting now on what to bring in to assure us of continuous, reliable power. In the near term, it probably still has to include new coal plants. So, for the Philippines, coal will remain an option for many years yet. We are one of the smallest polluters of the atmosphere (only 0.3 percent of world’s carbon emissions), so we can afford to be a little dirty for a while yet.

At present, coal accounts for 57 percent of our total power generation; even if the new ones are low on emissions, they are still polluting. And the world is phasing them out. Oil, which is much worse, is 2.4 percent, and must be phased out. Making matters worse, coal has to be imported. In 2019, we spent US$2.3 billion importing 29.4 million tons of coal. These are dollars we could better use for other things. We couldn’t get the cost of uranium, which is used as fuel for nuclear plants, but it only accounts for 14 percent of total costs, compared with fuel costs for a coal-fired plant at 78 percent and for a gas-fired plant at 87 percent.

Uranium is also a highly concentrated source of energy. One uranium fuel pellet the size of a pencil eraser can give as much energy as 1 ton of coal, 149 gallons of oil, or 17,000 cubic feet of natural gas. Hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind, of course, need no imports except what nature provides.

Natural gas is pretty clean, emitting half the carbon dioxide coal does. But it’s not renewable, it’s a source that will be depleted, as in Malampaya’s case in just a few years. So, unless a new source is found pretty quickly, we’ll have to import. That’s the direction being taken now with about six liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals that are expected to be developed in the country in the next four years, according to the Department of Energy. President Duterte also lifted the moratorium on oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea. There are ongoing talks for possible joint exploration with China. The proposal is for 60:40 sharing of resources, with the Philippines getting the larger share. Either way, imported or locally sourced gas will be a viable source for many years yet.

But if we want that power to be clean power, which we do, it comes down to five possible options: Hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, wind, and nuclear.

Hydro needs continuous water from a dam, which as we experienced in the drought of 2019 can put availability at risk. And what water a dam does have is primarily for irrigation and human consumption. Power is third, so the first to be cut when there’s limited water.

Geothermal is pretty good. But it’s a high capex cost, and there’s considerable maintenance. It has a limited life as the steam runs out eventually.

Solar and wind are becoming ever more feasible options and certainly a growing part of the future, but neither of them can provide the needed continuous, stable electricity 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. They are dependent on the weather and time. Batteries can provide 24-hour power, but they’re expensive, so you’ll pay more for your electricity. There’s a lot of research being done on a new kind of battery that’s lower-cost and long-lasting, and it will eventually be found. So these batteries can be and should be part of our system, but they can’t yet be the foundational source we must have. The capacity factor of solar and wind is only 25 percent and 35 percent. Capacity factor is the percent of time in a year a plant runs. Coal and gas plants run at about 75-80 percent of the time in a year. Nuclear is almost all the time, with 92 percent capacity factor.

Both solar and wind also use large areas of land, which we don’t have. A wind farm needs 700 to 900 square kilometers to produce 1000 megawatts of electricity, while a solar PV facility needs 120 to 200 square kilometers. They, particularly wind, can be offshore, but at a higher capex. A nuclear energy facility only needs 3.4 square kilometers of land.

Solar and, less so, wind will be an increasing part of our mix. But as it now stands, only three sources can give us truly clean, affordable cost base load energy: Geothermal, hydro, and nuclear. Next week, nuclear.

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