‘Iiwasan tayo ng bagyo’: Typhoon ‘Ulysses’ and normalcy bias

Typhoons “Ofel,” “Pepito,” “Quinta,” and “Rolly” spared Metro Manila and its environs. Then came Typhoon “Ulysses.” People were all caught off guard.

Maybe the people of Metro Manila and surrounding provinces Bulacan, Rizal, and Laguna were all tired of listening to the forecast of our weather bureau. After those successive typhoons, they probably thought “paiba-iba naman ang direction ng bagyo,” and “iiwasan tayo ng bagyo,” leading to disastrous results.

In fact, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), through its website https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/, was so efficient in informing the public of the impending arrival of typhoons. Inquirer.net published at 12:49 a.m. on Nov. 12, 2020, the warning: “NEXT 12 HOURS CRITICAL TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON: Eye of Ulysses may move within 100 km north of Metro Manila an hour earlier. Pagasa urges public not to disregard warnings.”

Most of us suffer from normalcy bias. What is normalcy bias? Normalcy bias leads people to underestimate, miscalculate, or misjudge the effects of a disaster (or pandemic). According to Jason Hanson in his book “Spy Secrets That Can Save Your Life” (2015), normalcy bias, although it is a “protective mechanism, allows us to think that everything will be OK, or an approaching storm isn’t going to be that bad. This is how normalcy bias puts us in danger. If we aren’t aware of the impact a particular event may have, we’re not able to adequately prepare for it. Left unchecked, normalcy bias can lead us into dangerous behaviors.”

Likewise, our fatalistic expression “Bahala na si Batman,” coupled with a “Whatever will be, will be” attitude, must be corrected.

Resilient — yes we are, but we must take disasters seriously, and we must prepare for them. As a TV show slogan states: “Ligtas ang may alam.”

Let us monitor and listen to legitimate media sources (not those that propagate fake news), especially those broadcasting weather-related news. Let us not disregard their warnings.

JOBET GARCIA PAULINO
San Juan City