Stay on guard

For the first time in almost four months, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily dropped below 1,000 to 987 last Wednesday, based on data from the Department of Health. Before this, the lowest recorded tally was on July 14 with 634 cases.

But, at the risk of sounding like Scrooge at Christmas, it is not yet time to celebrate and be careless even with cases slowly declining. All the more, in fact, that the public should take extra precautions, with experts warning of pandemic fatigue as restrictions on mobility are gradually eased and the season’s celebratory mood may lead more people to go out of their homes and relax their guard.

Last month, the Philippines saw a 25-percent decrease in COVID-19 cases from an average of 2,517 to 1,887, while the average in Metro Manila — the epicenter of the virus — was at 490, a significant improvement from the 2,500 in August. However, professor Guido David, of the Octa Research Group that looks into COVID-19 data, noted that the Philippines still ranks 22nd among countries with the most COVID-19 infections and that the decline may have been due to several factors, such as the suspension of testing by the Philippine Red Cross (PRC) and the disruption of laboratory tests due to the recent typhoons.

While the number of cases did not register an alarming uptick after the PRC resumed tests late last month, the government has reminded people to continue observing minimum health standards such as wearing face mask and shield when going out, and maintaining physical distance when interacting with others.

If the downward trend continues, David said, the number of cases in the metro may go down to about 200 cases by December and lockdown can eventually be eased to MGCQ by early next year. “Patuloy pa din natin gawin ang mga ginagawa na tama para hindi magbago ang trajectory natin (Let’s continue doing what is right so our trajectory won’t change),” David said in an interview with ABS-CBN’s TeleRadyo last Wednesday. “Aware rin naman tayo na pagdating ng holiday season meron na ring fatigue ang mga tao, gustong lumabas, pwedeng magkaroon ng uptick, pero ang importante d’yan ’yung response natin mabilis para… hindi na lalala at magkakaroon ng surge… (We are aware that as the holiday season approaches people are experiencing fatigue, they want to go out so an uptick is likely, but what’s important is our quick response so there won’t be a surge in cases).”

David said that the country’s ranking worldwide may even decline further, with northern hemisphere countries likely to overtake the current rankings as the winter season sets in. The second wave of COVID-19 infections has sent countries in Europe like France, the United Kingdom, and Germany into another round of lockdowns after weeks of seeing bars and restaurants crowded with people who were fed up with quarantine measures. “There is fatigue, and I actually characterize it as annoyance at the fact that this virus, which they cannot see, has intruded on their lives and upset us, economically, socially, culturally in every way,” Dr. Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University whose son lives in Berlin, said in an interview with CNBC. “They’re annoyed at the virus. They want it to just go away.”

What’s happening in Europe should be a cautionary tale for the Philippines, especially with the onset of the holiday season. David said experts do not recommend further easing quarantine protocols at this time and especially in anticipation of the Christmas season, where mall sales and parties could drive people out of their homes and cause crowding in shopping centers and other public places.

Dr. Nicanor Austriaco, another fellow of the Octa Research Group, noted that “as you increase mobility, you’re going to increase transmission,” though he added that the expected uptick in the coming weeks should not cause fear. “This is something we have to be ready for. We have been preparing for this for the last six months and, hopefully, our contact-tracing capacity, our isolation and quarantine facilities, hopefully all that we invested in for the last six months will now allow us to manage the uptick in cases to prevent a surge.”

So while it may be tempting to celebrate Christmas like the usual, the virus remains a threat, and Filipinos should not let their guard — and masks — down. Strictly observing health protocols is crucial in sustaining the decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases in the country, which still had 34,374 active cases as of Friday.

“’Yung mga pagsusunod sa health protocols, kailangan strictly sinusunod pa din natin,” reminded David. “Huwag muna tayo magpabaya at maging pasaway kasi medyo malapit na tayo, kumbaga homestretch na tayo. …’Di naman forever ang GCQ (We should continue following health protocols because we’re almost there, we’re on the homestretch… GCQ is not forever).”