Will Donald Trump accept defeat?
I contributed to their anxiety so that, when they ran screaming from it, they would look for any solution at all,” declared Simoun, the dark antihero of “El Filibusterismo.”
A full generation before the rise of fascism in Europe, and more than a century ahead of the global ascent of strongman populism, Jose Rizal foresaw the irresistible temptations of grievance politics. Far more than hope and dreams of a better future, the toxic combination of fear and resentment tends to tick human nature with greater vigor.
Ibarra, Rizal’s tragic hero in “Noli Mi Tangere,” is so compelling a character precisely because his downfall echoes the tragedy of reformist politics.
The year 2016 was the ultimate fruition of Simoun’s vision of cathartic disruption and aestheticized violence, both symbolic and real. Brexit saw the permanent untethering of a long-admired democracy from the world’s greatest experiment in peace, the European Union.
In Asia’s oldest democracy, Rodrigo Duterte grabbed the presidency by glorifying violence, denigrating reason, and presenting himself as the county’s “last card” against an imaginary “narco-state” apocalypse.
But it’s Donald Trump that stands as the flesh-and-blood embodiment of the politics of resentment and fear.
Given Trump’s lifelong temperament and record in office, and the vicious polarization in America, one wonders how he will respond to an impending defeat at the ballot box.
Sure, let’s not forget that polls are statistical probabilities, which fail to measure, among others, “shy votes” (those who refuse to admit their true choice) as well as voter suppression, a perennial bane for Democrats. But it’s even more foolish to dismiss the greater probability of a landslide victory for Joseph Biden. By all indications, what we are seeing is more of 2018, when Democrats swept “purple” and even “red” districts, than 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost despite winning almost three million more votes.
In fact, Biden is in a strong position to win not only Florida, but even Arizona. And Democrats are enjoying historic momentum in Texas and North Carolina, not to mention a resurgence in “rustbelts” of the Midwest.
As many as 92 million voters have already mailed their choices, indicating historic-high turnout, which tends to benefit the Democrats. And the old, white, and moderate Biden from Scranton doesn’t have to deal with either chauvinism or the stigma of “socialism” attached to Barack Obama.
And yet, unless Biden wins by a clear landslide, America is teetering on the edge of a mini-civil war.
On one hand, toxic partisanship has reached unprecedented levels. Surveys show that up to 40 percent of the electorate sees the other side as downright “evil,” not only as an ideological rival. Hardening partisanship means each side will stick with their champions no matter what, even if this could risk the fatal erosion of the American republic.
Even more troubling: About 20 percent of voters have expressed openness to the use of violence in an event their candidate loses. In a country notorious for lax gun controls and having among the worst rates of gun-related violence, the recent months have reportedly seen 8 out of the 10 biggest weeks for gun sales since the late 1990s.
“You know that [expletive] is going to pop off after the elections,” one fearful voter told the New York Times when asked about her fears of a “legitimate civil war.”
“I don’t want to be a sitting duck,” said another anxious voter, explaining her decision to take up arms as militias such as Proud Boys and the broader “boogaloo” movement display their fangs.
Equally worrying is Trump’s refusal to commit to a peaceful transition of power, even telling his armed supporters to “stand by” while warning of massive electoral fraud sans any evidence.
Crucially, Trump confronts an existential struggle. Having survived an impeachment, he still faces thousands of lawsuits, including questions over his finances and at least 26 accusations of sexual misconduct. He is also more than $421 million in debt, the bulk of which he will have to shoulder in the next few years.
If there is one thing that history shows, it is that populists, from Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra to Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, don’t go gently into the night. They will fight back, often at the expense of the whole nation.
