What would a Biden presidency mean?
It would be well, there can be no doubt, for the American people as a whole, if they loved the Real less, and the Ideal somewhat more,” lamented Charles Dickens.
Following his visit to America in early 19th century, the British novelist was outraged by the depth of inequality and injustice he saw in the world’s first modern democracy, where “[a]ll that is loathsome, drooping, or decayed is here.”
Perhaps it’s revealing that among the United States’ most iconic leaders are a former B-movie Hollywood actor who proudly took on the “Evil Empire” of communism while eliminating social welfare at home, and, most recently, a boisterous reality show star who wills his own truth and often seems to operate in an alternative universe.
Almost two centuries later, America still remains the lodestar of mind-bending contradictions. And its increasingly polarized and dispiriting politics is the world’s greatest spectacle, most horridly exemplified by last week’s unpresidential “debate.”
America is a land of the greatest possibilities, both shocking and sublime. But, as things stand today, the country’s politics is taking an unpredictably predictable turn. With the economy in tatters and swing counties reconsidering their flirtation with populism, the US elections appear to be heading toward a predictable outcome, namely the victory of an ultimate political insider.
After months of downplaying the threat of COVID-19 (even deliberately, according to a biographer), Donald Trump has been forced into the state-of-the-art Walter Reed military hospital for treatment.
Trump has made it clear that he won’t easily concede defeat, and in the event of a close electoral college showdown in November, the incumbent will likely try to leverage his latest Supreme Court picks to hold on to power.
What many observers tend to forget is that while polls are far from perfect and that Trump could still win the presidency, there is even greater likelihood that Joe Biden would secure a landslide electoral college victory.
Elected to the country’s highest chamber at the age of 29, Biden is considered one of America’s political prodigies, for whom the presidency could seem an inevitable part of an age-old political saga. A former vice president and a decades-long senator, he is the closest approximation of “establishment” politics in ways unmatched by even former Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton.
This has made him a much reviled figure among the Right and those on the radical fringes of politics, but it has also endeared him to centrist voters who seek a semblance of sanity and stability amid an ongoing global crisis.
A Biden presidency would bring about at least three major changes for the world.
First, he is no dove, whether on domestic “law and order” issues or foreign policy. The greatest misconception among a number of observers is that Democrats are a bunch of softies. Biden’s controversial record, from his support for the Iraq War to draconian anti-crime laws, in fact reflect more conservative and hawkish instincts.
Once a proponent of “strategic empathy” among great powers, Biden has openly decried China’s communist regime as a “dictatorship.” His key advisers, including Ely Ratner, have been among the most outspoken advocates of a tougher and “clear-eyed rethinking of the United States’ approach to China.” Crucially, the Democratic Party as a whole has embraced an increasingly tough stance against China, focusing not only on trade, investment, and military competition, but also on human rights and democracy.
Second, Biden would likely push for a more comprehensive and multilateral approach in his foreign policy. Unlike Trump’s “Make America Great Again” unilateralism, Biden would focus on building institutionalized cooperation with key allies, from Europe and Japan to Australia and the Philippines.
He will likely restore America’s participation in crucial global partnerships such as the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement on climate change, and also key trade and investment agreements, including the now Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Third, a Biden presidency would mean less chumminess with autocrats and populists around the world. An experienced statesman with focus on crisis management at home, he would surely be astute enough in his global diplomacy, but we will likely see less of the Trump-style embrace of the likes of President Duterte or Vladimir Putin. In short, Biden would be a mixture of the Dickensian prescription of the Ideal and the Real.
