Aquino’s balance of power diplomacy over Spratlys

Last month laid the foundation of an Asian alliance aimed at checking aggressive Chinese naval incursions into disputed territories in the West Philippine Sea, referred to by Beijing as the South China Sea, in a David-and-Goliath message of defiance to Beijing’s hegemonic intentions over the maritime region.

On his return on September 28 from a four-day Tokyo visit, President Aquino claimed he brought home $1.4 billion in fresh investment and Japanese support for a multilateral solution to the disputed Spratly Islands.

The alignment of Japan with four of Asean’s (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) 10 members—the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei—in a concerted action to channel the dispute into   a diplomatic framework of negotiations is clearly more important than the economic assistance package.

The results from the Tokyo trip followed those from the United States the week before—a visit that ended with the President coming home empty-handed in economic benefits.

At the end of the Tokyo visit, the Philippine leader and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda issued a statement contradicting China’s position that wants a bilateral solution to conflicting claims to the Spratly Islands.

The joint communiqué said, “The two leaders confirmed that the South China Sea is vital, as it connects the world and the Asia Pacific region, and that peace and stability therein is of common interest to the international community.”

It emphasized “the need for a rules-based (approach) for addressing and resolving disputes and promoting cooperation” in the region. The leaders also “expressed their hope of the early formulation of a legally binding code of conduct that is consistent with established international law.”

The two leaders said, “As leaders of countries sharing lines of communication, they also confirmed that freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce, and compliance with established international law, including the Unclos (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), and the peaceful settlement of disputes serve the interests of the two and the whole region.”

Freedom of navigation

Though not a claimant to the Spratly Islands, Japan came on board to join the Asean claimants, saying vessels that deliver oil it imports from the Middle East pass through vital sea lanes in the West Philippine Sea.

The sea is the main corridor for the shipment of 88 percent of oil imported by Japan from the Middle East, according to the Japanese Embassy in Manila.

“Japan is also very concerned about it as the freedom of navigation of Japanese vessels plying (the area),” said Philippine Ambassador to Tokyo Manuel Lopez.

Japan’s weight in pushing for multilateral solutions is significant in that it is the second regional naval power next to China in the West Philippine Sea. Tensions between China and the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan over conflicting claims in the region have escalated over the past few months following increased naval activities in the area.

The Philippines repeatedly complained this year of aggressive acts of the Chinese military in the West Philippine Sea, which is believed to hold vast oil and gas deposits. Manila has accused Beijing of firing on Filipino fishermen, laying buoys on Philippine islets, and intimidating oil exploration vessels.

Nucleus of an entente

China claims all of the West Philippine Sea and insists it has sole rights to all of the area, including islands claimed by the Philippines. Japan’s intervention is likely to anger China. China has called for bilateral negotiations on the disputes, a strategy that would effectively shut out other countries like the United States and Asean members.

The Philippines has proposed that Manila and Tokyo set up a “permanent working group” that would regularly tackle other Asian maritime concerns—a proposal that has the potential of becoming the working mechanism of a Japan, Philippines and Vietnam axis—with the two Asean members acting as the nucleus of an entente, given that Vietnam and the Philippines have had encounters with Chinese naval intrusions in the West Philippine Sea and have been building their own naval capability to stand up to the Chinese Navy that is now projecting its growing might in a display of gunboat diplomacy.

In August, China launched its first aircraft carrier which embarked on sea trials “in a potent demonstration of the growing naval power that is creating pride at home—and concern in the region.”

According to the Guardian newspaper in the United Kingdom, while China says it will  only ever use naval power for defensive purposes, others say it is increasingly aggressive in pursuing its claims.

The refitting of the former Soviet aircraft carrier, Varyag, which China bought from Ukraine in 1998, according to the Guardian report, “is part of China’s broader naval modernization program—which includes heavy spending on submarines and the development an antimissile system—and comes amid growing competition with the US and India, and a string of maritime disputes with closer neighbors.”

Shifting balance of power

The Guardian quotes Hoshihiko Yamada, a professor at Japan’s Tokai University: “This is showing the whole world that China’s maritime mobility is expanding drastically. This is showing that China is in the process of acquiring capability to control the South China Sea, as well as the East China Sea.”

In the past year, “China has seen a series of territorial spats with Japan over islets in the East China Sea; and with the Philippines, Vietnam and others over the South China Sea, the location of  essential shipping lanes and important resources. These disputes are complicated by underlying competition with the US and India.”

According  to Dr. Ian Storey of the Institution of Asian Studies Singapore, as reported by the Guardian, “by itself, the ship (the aircraft  carrier) does not erode the credibility of America’s military presence in the region nor greatly increase China’s power projection capabilities. Nevertheless, the vessel is a potent symbol of China’s aspirations to become a global maritime power and is yet another indication that military balance of power is gradually shifting in China’s favor.”

President Aquino is trying his hands in balance of power diplomacy over the Spratlys. Does he have the mind and the world view to handle the challenge?