Pollsters meet in Amsterdam

Last week’s annual conference of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), hosted by the University of Amsterdam, was memorable for us from Social Weather Stations.

Tourists will find that prostitution is legal; the formally-named Red Light District is well-marked on street signs.  Starter kits for growing cannabis are on sale in the flower market.  Museums told us that Rembrandt was a well-paid celebrity, whereas poverty-stricken Van Gogh was dead by suicide at 37.  I missed the tour by canal, alas, so that I could do last week’s column.

The welcome reception was held at the historic Oost-Indisch Huis (East India House) of the Dutch East India Company, established in 1602.  The company was located here until its bankruptcy in 1798, when it passed to the Dutch government.  I think that Multatuli (pseudonym), author of the 1860 best-seller “Max Havelaar” that inspired Jose Rizal, according to John Nery, and fueled the movement that eventually ended Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia, must have been here, since he had been an employee of the colonial service.

Our old friend Wolfgang Donsbach has retired from the general editorship of the International Journal of Public Opinion Research.  He led

WAPOR’s updates of freedom to publish surveys.  As  professor of communications at Dresden, he has written on the antipathy to surveys of journalists who resent competition from a profession that claims—rightly—to know public opinion better than they do.

Another friend, former WAPOR treasurer Allan McCutcheon denied receiving any complaint against SWS for unethical survey practice in 2007, contrary to Team Unity media director Ben Evardone’s claim (see “Team Unity files complaint vs SWS surveys,” Inquirer, 4/4/07).  Filipino poker players call that “bluff economico”—trying to bluff without adding money to the pot.

I had a very good meeting with professor Colin Irwin, the top practitioner of polling in direct assistance to peace processes, who has worked in Northern Ireland, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, and elsewhere.  I hope he can visit the Philippines soon to share his experiences with Filipinos in general and with all sides directly involved in peace talks.

The conference theme being “Public Opinion and the Internet,” the keynote address of professor Willem Saris (a Dutchman, now with Barcelona University) was: “The web survey: the data collection method of the future.” He points out that many institutions, especially in mass media, are doing so-called “opt-in” surveys by attracting respondents with Internet access who respond to advertisements. This is inexpensive but not statistically valid, since the data collection is not based on probability sampling.

The right approach, he says, is to first draw a probability sample of the population, and then get the selected people to participate in an on-line survey.  Those without Internet access must be provided with the necessary facilities to participate.  This requires a heavy initial investment, but costs will go down as respondents participate over and over again, as a panel.

It was nice to meet pollsters from Israel, Palestine, India, Pakistan, Russia, Latvia, Taiwan, and China.  This profession requires some commitment to free speech and democracy.

The next WAPOR conference will be on the theme “The new world of public opinion research,” and is set for June 14-15, 2012, in Hong Kong. WAPOR conferences now have a three-year cycle, in North America in one year, Europe the second year, and elsewhere the third year.

The 2012 conference host will be professor Robert Chung of the University of Hong Kong, a veteran of the struggle for survey freedom.  He successfully resisted, through formal litigation, the attempt of university officials to suppress his polls showing Hong Kong opinions unfavorable to China.  The ruling in his favor led to the resignation of the university vice chancellor.  This happened some years ago, after sovereignty over Hong Kong had already reverted to China.

The Philippines is well-known in WAPOR circles for the two successive Supreme Court rulings, in 2000 and 2001, that exit polls and publication of pre-election surveys are protected by the constitutional right of freedom of expression.  The 2001 ruling was immensely helped by information supplied to SWS by several WAPOR members on experiences and jurisprudence, especially in Canada, regarding election surveys around the world.

Filipinos interested in participating in WAPOR may apply directly (wapor.unl.edu) or through its new Philippine representative, Gerardo “Jay” Sandoval <[email protected]>.

*  *  *

The SWS contributions to the conference were: “Filipinos and media: views on ethics, corruption, partisanship, role and influence,” by Jay Sandoval, Jeanette Ureta and Leo Rando Laroza; “Patterns of Internet use among the general public and the youth in the Philippines,” by Iremae D. Labucay; “Measuring Islamophobia in the Philippines,” by Vladymir Joseph Licudine; and “The Philippines’ first outdoor exit poll,” by myself, Linda Luz Guerrero, Germelita Caron, and Jay Sandoval.

The only other contribution from Southeast Asia was “Public opinion of the Thai on the amendment of the 2007 Constitution of Thailand,” by Jantima Kheokao (University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce), which won the Elizabeth Nelson Prize for best paper by an author from a society in transition.

*  *  *

Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or [email protected].