SWS: 4 million got stranded

Ms. Michelle Silvertino, the 33-year-old single mother who died last June 5 in Pasay City, after being stranded for five days waiting for a bus home to Camarines Sur, is an icon for an estimated 4 million Filipinos stranded by quarantines, based on the Social Weather Stations May 4-10, 2020 nationwide mobile phone survey.

In the process of phoning the SWS probability sample of mobile numbers, the interviewers ascertained whether the respondent was staying with his/her family at that time, or was temporarily absent because of the quarantine. (The survey pre-test, a few days earlier, had discovered such cases.) The location of the respondent’s family was important since some questions, in particular that on hunger, were about the respondent’s family, not the respondent personally, and the answers would have to be assigned to the regional location of the family, not the location of the interview.

5.4% were stranded by quarantines. In this way, the SWS survey found 5.4 percent of the respondents stranded, as of May 4-10. Applying this to a projected population of 75.8 million working-age (15 years old and up) persons gives an estimate of 4.1 million stranded.The stranding rate, being only a byproduct of the survey, was not intended for public release, until now. But, given the recent publicity on the plight of Michelle Silvertino, it is fitting to share more survey details about it.

The stranding rate was 4.8 percent in the National Capital Region (estimate 500,000 persons), 5.3 percent in the Balance of Luzon (1.8 million), 5.0 percent in the Visayas (700,000), and 6.4 percent in Mindanao (1.1 million).

This shows very significant mobility of Filipinos all over the country. Local migration for temporary work is just as important as international migration. Family suffering due to missed domestic remittances is just as dire as that due to missed international remittances.

The stranding rate was 5.0 percent in enhanced community quarantine areas (2.0 million), and 5.9 percent in general community quarantine areas (2.1 million); thus, both types of quarantine are equally painful.

Stranded were 6.2 percent of working-age men (2.3 million), and 4.7 percent of working-age women (1.8 million). The most-stranded ages were the 18-24 y/o (11.4 percent) and the 25-34 y/o (6.9 percent). With millions stranded, who knows how many have died, like poor Michelle Silvertino, as a result? What is certain is that all of them, and their families, have suffered significantly.

Scientific survey statistics on other forms of suffering are piling up. The latest SWS report from its mobile phone survey is: “The COVID-19 crisis brought stress to 9 out of 10 Filipinos,” www.sws.org.ph, 6/12/20. It shows 55 percent feeling great stress (napakalaki) and 34 percent feeling much stress (medyo malaki) from the crisis.

Naturally, those greatly stressed are proportionally more among the hungry, among those whose pay was cut, and among those who lost their jobs. The lower the level of education, the more the stress. Visayans are relatively more stressed than others. The ECQ areas and GCQ areas are equally stressed. Filipinos in great stress are over 40 million.

The SWS mobile phone survey results are quite consistent with the official report that an unprecedented 7.3 million Filipinos are unemployed, according to the government’s April 2020 Labor Force Survey, which also uses a probability sample. The labor secretary’s assertion that “the 7.3 million is just a survey and it is not actual or factual,” unlike his figure of 69,000 unemployed from companies that have closed due to the pandemic, is nothing less than incompetent (see “Actual numbers of jobless Filipinos only 69K: DOLE,” pna.gov.ph, 6/10/20).

Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.