President Aquino undertakes an official visit to the United States on Sept. 18-23 not under the most cheerful circumstances. Nothing can be worse than the fact that the public approval ratings of both President Aquino and US President Barack Obama are falling. The gloss of their presidencies, which inspired much expectations with the mesmerizing rhetoric of their inaugural speeches, is waning.
The Philippine and US economies are not in the best of shape. Both have precious little to show that the two presidents have accomplished much in boosting their national economies to match the promise of their soaring goals in the face of an economic recession.
On the eve of President Aquino’s departure for Washington on Sunday, he carries a heavy economic baggage. This week, the Asian Development Bank released its economic outlook for 2011. The outlook forecasts a gross domestic product of 4.7 percent and 5.1 percent for this year and the next, for the Philippines, down respectively from April’s outlook—5 percent and 5.3 percent.
These figures are lower than the government’s 7-8 percent growth target for both years. The revisions followed the lower ADB forecast for developing Asia. ADB now forecasts the region’s economy to grow by 7.5 percent this year, and in the next year by 7.8 percent or 7.7 percent. Its forecast for Southeast Asia’s growth is down to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent for 2011; and to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent for 2012. ADB chief economist Changyong Rhee reported that, “[j]ob creation remains lackluster, with youth unemployment rate more than double the overall jobless rate.” Adding that “further increases in investment along with policy are needed to boost jobs.”
In Washington, the Obama administration has sunk into political quicksand, putting his reelection in 2012 at risk. The American economy is stuck with a 9.1 percent unemployment rate, which is being blamed for the unrest over the economic performance and for the fall of his public approval ratings.
President Aquino and President Obama will have much to commiserate over with each other, that is if ever they would have a lengthy one-on-one notwithstanding the heavy schedule of meetings with business and several groups lined up for Mr. Aquino. They would be asking each other, “what went wrong” with their promising starts on their inauguration. According to the Department of Foreign Affairs, President Aquino’s agenda would highlight the administration’s “commitment to good governance and anti-corruption” program. The visit would also highlight the administration’s economic agenda and “accomplishment after a year in office,” for which there is little to show. The President’s visit is crammed with speeches before and meetings with business and investors’ groups. The heavy emphasis on speeches indicates that the main output of the economy under the Aquino administration has been words, rather than tangible results.
The Social Weather Stations survey of last June reported that the net satisfaction rating of the President went down by 5 points, +46 percent, from +51 in March. Opposition legislators blamed the plunge in ratings to “economic mismanagement ” and his focus on uncovering the alleged corruption scandals of the previous administration. In Washington and in New York, Mr. Aquino is expected to regale his audiences with speeches amplifying how the “daang matuwid” good governance slogan works wonders in producing economic results and reducing poverty. President Aquino in his US visit flies into the face of President Obama’s eroding popularity as opinion polls show that the unemployment spike threatens his reelection.
According to a Bloomberg National Poll of Sept. 9-12, a majority of Americans don’t believe Obama’s $447-billion jobs plan will help lower the the unemployment rate—such “skepticism he must overcome as he presses Congress for action and positions himself for re-election.”
The Bloomberg poll shows that Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy by 62 percent to 33 percent. The disapproval number represents a nine-point increase from six months ago. Obama’s job approval rating also stands at the lowest of his presidency—45 percent. The poll gives Obama new lows in each of the categories that measure his performance on the economy: only 37 percent of respondents approve of his effort to create jobs, 30 percent approve of how he has tackled the budget deficit, and 39 percent approve of his handling of health care. By a margin of 51 percent to 40 percent, Americans doubt the package of tax cuts and spending proposals intended to jump-start job creation that Obama has submitted to Congress last week will bring down the 9.1 percent jobless rate.
Reuters reports that Obama has “scant time left to build the muscular economic recovery that won Ronald Reagan his re-election in 1984, after he seemed similarly at risk being a one-term president at the half-way point of his administration.” As Obama prepared to deliver a vital speech this week to boost job growth and lift his standing with voters, his approval rating is the lowest since Jimmy Carter’s and not far behind Reagan’s at similar stages in their presidencies. The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, reports that it’s “ominous” for Obama “that the share of voters who think he has strong leadership qualities has dropped from 64-33 percent in January to 50-48 percent now.”
Filipinos are stuck with P-Noy for the next five years. Obama cannot instruct him on how to lift the Philippine economy from its doldrums. His visit to Washington is of no use. Aquino has to work harder on the economy—at home.