Poverty bounces back up

More details about the reversal in economic well-being came out this week in “Third Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey: Self-Rated Poverty rises to 52%,” www.sws.org.ph, 10/9/2018.

Self-Rated Poverty (SRP), the proportion of families declared (by household heads) as mahirap or poor, has been regularly tracked by SWS for over 30 years. Its all-time high was 74 percent in July 1985 (a hyperinflationary time); its record low was 42 percent in both September 2016 and March 2018.

The new SRP figure of 52 percent translates to 12.2 million families feeling poor, given the latest projected base of 23.3 million families in the Philippines, as of September 2018. The last time the SRP rate was 52 or more was in December 2014, almost four years ago.

The SRP percentage had been 48 in June 2018, and 42 in March 2018, implying a total rise of 10 points in the last two quarters. Since the error margin is plus/minus 3 points for national figures, both quarterly changes were statistically significant, and more so was the 10-point increase in six months.

As of September, the SRP rate was 26 in the National Capital Region, 47 in the Balance of Luzon, 67 in Visayas, and 65 in Mindanao. Compared to March 2018, SRP was up by 13 points in Mindanao, up by 13 points

also in Visayas, and up by 7 points in the Balance of Luzon, but down by 4 points in NCR.

Self-Rated Food Poverty (SRFP) is the percentage of families that declare their food mahirap or poor. The percentage was 36 last month—amounting to 8.5 million families—up from 34 last June, and from

29 last  March.

By area, as of September, the SRFP rate was 21 in NCR, 31 in Balance of Luzon, 49 in Visayas, and 46 in Mindanao.  Compared to last March, it rose in all areas—by 15 points in Mindanao, 7 points in Balance of Luzon, 4 points in Visayas, and 3 points in NCR.

The indicators of poverty among families are independent of, yet empirically related to, the margin of adults getting better off over those getting worse off. Sadly, the gainers-losers margin has just gone negative, for the first time since 2014 (see “Inclusive growth has ended,” Opinion, 10/6/18).

(A standard quarterly Social Weather Survey has two respondents: 1. the household head, and 2. a randomly-drawn adult—who may or may not be the household head as well—each with a separate questionnaire. The household head answers questions about the entire household’s well-being, including poverty and hunger; the adult answers questions about his/her personal well-being, including whether he/she got better off or worse off from a year ago. The poverty status of adults is the same as the poverty self-rating of their household heads.)

Getting better off is much harder for the poor. In September 2018, 26 percent of adults in poor families said they were better off versus a year ago, and 34 percent said they were worse off. This gives them an unfavorable Net Gainers score of -8.

On the other hand, among adults from nonpoor families, 31 percent said they were better off, but only 26 percent said they were worse off, for a favorable Net Gainers score of +5. Put together, the -8 of poor adults and the +5 of nonpoor adults give the national Net Gainers score of -2.

A new national survey, done by SWS for the Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines, shows that Filipinos clearly favor imprisonment over death as the penalty for heinous crimes. See “March 2018 National Survey on Public Perceptions on the Death Penalty: 33% or less demand the death penalty for 6 of 7 crimes related to illegal drugs,” www.sws.org.ph, 10/10/2018. It was presented by CHRP and SWS on Oct. 10, the 16th World Day Against The Death Penalty.

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