Slow, lingering boats from China

On Aug. 15, Magdalo party-list Rep. Gary Alejano revealed that a small flotilla of Chinese vessels, including two ships of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), was conducting unusual operations in the waters off Pag-asa Island, the largest Philippine-occupied feature in the Spratlys.

On Aug. 19, Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio sounded the alarm, specifically about Chinese occupation of a sandbar in those waters.

“Sandy Cay is a Philippine land territory that is being seized (to put it mildly) or being invaded (to put it frankly) by China,” said the jurist, who was instrumental in the landmark arbitral tribunal case the Philippines won against China.

“This means China is now virtually occupying a new geologic feature within the territorial sea of Pag-asa, a Philippine territory, in clear violation of China’s supposed vow not to occupy any more islands in the Spratlys,” he said. “By any yardstick, this is seizure of Philippine territory.”

On Aug. 20, National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. denied that any sandbars had been occupied. “China has not seized sandbars in Pag-asa Atoll,” Esperon said. “There should be no alarm on that as long as they don’t occupy any of the sandbars. There are many Chinese as well as Vietnamese fishing boats in and near Pag-asa Island and its nearby sandbars, collectively called Pag-asa Atoll.”

On Aug. 21, President Duterte simultaneously denied that an invasion had taken place and signalled that a mere sandbar was not worth fighting over.

“It was not invaded. What [Carpio] said was not true. They [the Chinese] are just there but they are not claiming anything,” he said in a mixture of Filipino and English. Noting that the Chinese were merely patrolling the area, he added: “Why should I defend a sandbar and kill the Filipinos because of a sandbar?”

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that Carpio is mistaken and that Sandy Cay has not been occupied by the Chinese, would that be the end of the issue?

It is clear — from the information presented by Alejano, analysis of the photographs conducted by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, and statements of both Esperon and the President — that an unusual combination of Chinese vessels did loiter in the waters off Pag-asa Island.

Two fishing boats, one Chinese coast guard ship, and two PLAN vessels were or are in the area. Doing what, exactly? The fishing boats seem to be engaged in fishing; the coast guard ship may be providing a protective umbrella for the fishermen. What are the naval vessels for?

Even if Sandy Cay has not been occupied, the use of naval vessels represents a ratcheting up of Chinese presence in the area. At a time when all parties to the different maritime disputes in the South China Sea have agreed to re-establish some stability, the entry of the PLAN can only be understood as a deliberate message from Beijing.

The AMTI, an initiative of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, DC-based think tank, offers a possible reading of that message: “One possible explanation for the flotilla’s sudden and provocative appearance is that Beijing wanted to dissuade Manila from planned construction on [Pag-asa]. The Philippine government has said it plans to spend about $32 million on upgrades including a beaching ramp, desalination facilities, and long-overdue repairs to the islet’s crumbling runway. Those upgrades have been delayed, reportedly due to inclement weather, but [Defense Secretary Delfin] Lorenzana has made clear that they remain in the pipeline.”

It is imperative, then, that the President reassure the nation that the necessary upgrades to the facilities on Pag-asa Island will continue.

On Monday, he had wondered aloud about why China would even be interested in occupying a sandbar: “Why would they risk invading a sandbar and get into a quarrel with us? Ano ang makuha nila? [What will they get out of it?]”

The answer in fact is plain to see. China will not risk it if they can get what they want — in this case, stopping the upgrades on Pag-asa — without having to occupy Sandy Cay. But it will increase the pressure on the Philippines and occupy even a mere sandbar if it thinks that is the key. The Philippines must not only proceed with its plan for Pag-asa; it must do so with unmistakable resolve.