Planning for a carless future
If rapid urbanization trends are to be sustainable, we need to get people out of their cars by providing extensive and comfortable mass transport systems, bicycle lanes, and ample pedestrian walkways. I brought this point up in last week’s R&D Congress on Sustainable Urbanization, an international conference organized by the Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau, a research arm of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources. After all, cities are for people, not for cars — a credo long advanced by Mayor Enrique Peñalosa of Colombia’s capital city of Bogotá, among others.
Years ago, Mayor Peñalosa spoke in Manila as part of his international crusade, arguing that building more and bigger highways to solve traffic jams is like using gasoline to put out a fire. Experience worldwide shows that building more road infrastructure in cities brings about more traffic jams, he argued. That is, building more roads only attracts more people to buy cars. He had turned down a $15-billion foreign loan for an 8-lane highway that would have primarily benefited those who own cars. Instead, he restricted car use, created quality public transport, and built a 35-kilometer “greenway” exclusively for bicyclists and pedestrians, which had since expanded nearly 10 times in length.
Here at home, part of the average Filipino family’s goals is to own a car. This was one of the key aspirations brought out by the AmBisyon Natin 2040 consultative visioning exercise undertaken by the National Economic and Development Authority. There is nothing inherently wrong with that — every Filipino family deserves mobility along with comfort — except that if we planned our collective future that way, we would be heading for unsustainable cities immobilized by traffic congestion. We only need to look at our major cities now, and see how they are choking up with burgeoning motor vehicle sales.
Last year, an all-time high of 417,356 new motor vehicles were sold in the country, according to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. and the Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors. Deducting an estimated 180,000 vehicles retired last year, the net addition was about 240,000 vehicles over the past year, or 20,000 additional vehicles on the road every month, motorcycles excluded. How many of these were in Metro Manila? With 37 percent of our total incomes concentrated in Metro Manila, a reasonable estimate would be to apply that same proportion to 20,000, giving us 7,300 vehicles added to Metro Manila traffic every passing month. This expansion will go on and on, with the monthly addition getting even bigger as we go on. Clearly, building more and more roads cannot be the long-term solution. It is, as indicated at the outset, extensive and comfortable mass transport systems, bicycle lanes, and ample pedestrian walkways that will have to be our long-term direction.
As we plan for the long term, there’s another factor to consider. Rapidly advancing technology promises to change the entire motor vehicle scene, and with it, our city landscapes. Consider this scenario, painted in an anonymous piece, “The Nearing Future,” that I recently came across: The first self-driving cars will be sold to the public in 2018, and electric cars will become mainstream by 2020. In due time, people will have no need to own a car, as they can use their smartphone to summon a driverless car to take them where they want to go. There will no longer be need for parking, or driver’s licenses. Cities will change drastically, as up to 90-95 percent less cars will be needed. Parking lots can be turned into parks. With autonomous driving and smart roads virtually eliminating road accidents, millions of lives will be saved. The insurance industry will be completely disrupted, as will traditional car companies. Real estate will change, because with people able to work while commuting, they will move farther away to live in more pleasant neighborhoods outside the cities.
That scenario will probably take more time to transpire in less affluent countries like the Philippines. Still, that is what the future holds, and now is the time to plan for it.
