Risks in Robredo’s impeachment

If Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez makes good his threat to file impeachment charges against Vice President Leni Robredo for supposed betrayal of public trust, her impeachment is a foregone conclusion.

Under the Constitution, an impeachment complaint signed by at least one-third of the members of the House of Representatives is sufficient to send the complaint directly to the Senate for trial.

Alvarez can easily muster the 99 signatures needed to make Robredo the first Philippine vice president to be impeached and tried by the Senate. As Speaker, he has “carrots” under his command that can convince many of his colleagues to share his belief that Robredo committed an impeachable offense.

For Alvarez, Robredo’s video message to the United Nations about extrajudicial killings in the Philippines constitutes betrayal of public trust because it humiliated the country before the international community.

Since impeachment is a numbers game, the question of whether or not Robredo committed an impeachable offense is immaterial. But while Robredo’s impeachment may be a walk in the park, there is no assurance that her impeachment trial and conviction would be smooth.

If the trial pushes through, the senators would have to defer their deliberations on pending bills and devote several days in a week to hear the evidence and arguments for and against Robredo’s conviction. This would result in delay in the approval of the administration’s pet bills—e.g., conversion to a federal system of government, tax reform, and streamlining of the bureaucracy.

No doubt, the proceedings on Robredo, like the impeachment trial of then President Joseph Estrada and then Chief Justice Renato Corona, will be broadcast live nationwide. Considering the interest of the European Union and the United Nations in the issue of extrajudicial killings, there is a strong possibility that the international media will also monitor her trial.

As part of Robredo’s defense, expect her to put on the witness stand some of the people she earlier said had complained to her about the “palit ulo” scheme where relatives of suspected drug users or pushers whom the police were unable to arrest were arrested in their stead.

With these witnesses testifying on nationwide radio or TV, the gory details of the war on drugs will be brought right into living rooms nationwide and, in the process, generate empathy for the victims’ families.

And when the names of the police officers allegedly involved in the killings are disclosed, the Philippine National Police would be put on the defensive. The publicity will be a boon to the local and international critics of the administration’s campaign against illegal drugs.

But the biggest concern for those behind the moves to impeach Robredo is being able to convince at least two-thirds of the senators, or 16, to find her guilty. Assuming that Alvarez’s party, PDP-Laban, forces the issue on its members or allies, only six—Senate President Koko Pimentel and Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Cynthia Villar, Tito Sotto, Juan Miguel Zubiri and Manny Pacquiao—can be expected to vote for conviction.

A “not guilty” verdict is assured from Robredo’s six fellow Liberal Party members—i.e., Senators Bam Aquino, Franklin Drilon, Francis Pangilinan, Risa Hontiveros, Ralph Recto and Leila de Lima. Make that seven if Sen. Sonny Trillanes, who has no love lost for Mr. Duterte, joins them.

It is wishful thinking to assume that the remaining senators would willingly toe Alvarez’s line on Robredo. They are independent-minded and have little need for patronage from the ruling party for their political survival.

But most importantly, the majority of them have higher political aspirations to look forward to beyond Mr. Duterte’s term. Those prospects make it imperative for them to avoid alienating the Bicolano voters who look to Robredo as their favorite daughter and the women voters who hold her in high esteem.

There is little to gain, if any, from Robredo’s impeachment.

Raul J. Palabrica (rpalabrica@inquirer. com.ph) writes a weekly column in the Business section of the Inquirer.