Crime down, but fearful up

Every quarter, the Social Weather Surveys track victimization by crime and the people’s anxieties about the safety of their neighborhood. Since 1989, the surveys have asked respondents if, in the past six months, their home has been broken into, any family member has been robbed outside the home, any family motor vehicle has been stolen, and anyone of the family has suffered physical violence. These items are about actual experiences.

Since 1986, SWS has asked about agreement or disagreement that people in the neighborhood are usually “afraid that robbers might break into their homes,” and “afraid to walk in the streets at night because it is not safe.” Since 2005, SWS has asked whether “there are already very many people addicted to banned drugs” in the neighborhood. These items are about subjective anxiety.

The newest SWS media release (1/29/17), “Fourth Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey: Record-low 4.5% of families lose property, 0.7% suffer physical violence, in the past 6 months; presence of many drug addicts declines to 52%,” shows that, in the last 30 years, the victimization by common crimes has generally been falling, albeit jaggedly rather than smoothly.

In calendar years 1989-92, the annual average proportion of families victimized by any of the named crimes ranged from 26 to 35 percent; in 1993-98, this average was 15-29 percent; in 1999-01, it was 10-15 percent; in 2002-10, it was 9-13 percent; and in 2011-16, it was 7-10 percent.

The time segments cited are slightly longer than the regimes of Cory Aquino, Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo and Noynoy Aquino. I do not expect a new administration to immediately reduce crime. I use calendar years because their averages are in the media release. (The quarterly data are also there, for anyone to choose his or her own time period.)

On the other hand, public anxiety initially fell, but later rose again. The proportion of people fearful of burglary was 47-62 percent in 1989-92, 47-54 percent in 1993-98, 44-51 percent in 1999-01, 47-56 percent in 2002-10, and 52-60 percent in 2011-2016. First downward, then upward.

The proportion saying that people in their neighborhood were afraid to walk their streets at night was 39-52 percent in 1989-92, 38-44 percent in 1993-98, 38-41 percent in 1999-01, 41-50 percent in 2002-10, and 40-51 percent in 2011-2016. Likewise, first downward, then upward.

Those seeing too many drug addicts around were 38-42 percent in 2005-2010 and 40-56 percent in 2011-2016. Visibility of drug addicts trended upward since 2005.

Of course, the fearful far outnumber the victims. But fear and victimization are related.  In December 2016, of those whose homes were actually burgled recently, 86 percent were afraid that it might happen again. Of those not victimized, only 62 percent were afraid.

In December 2016, of those whose families had suffered physical violence in the last six months, 63 percent were afraid that it might happen again. Of those not victimized, only 53 percent were afraid.

The presence of drug addicts is strongly related to anxiety about safety. Last December, among those seeing too many drug addicts around, 73 percent said that their streets were unsafe at night.  But among those not seeing too many drug addicts, only 25 percent said their streets were unsafe.

Last December, the percentage afraid that their home might be broken into was 77 among those seeing drug addicts around, but only 42 among those not seeing them.

This column uses special tabulations done by Josefina Mar of SWS.  Contact mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.