It is no exaggeration to say that a significant number of businessmen were apprehensive about the Philippines’ economic future in the weeks leading to and immediately after President Duterte’s victory in last year’s national elections.
Dire warnings were aired about how foreign investors were set to pull the rug out from under Filipinos’ feet by fleeing the country in droves.
Doomsday scenarios were also painted about how a precipitous fall in the peso against the US dollar would lead to a 1997-style financial meltdown, all because of dim prospects under the firebrand mayor-turned-head-of-state who promised to fatten the fish in Manila Bay with the corpses of thousands of drug pushers and users.
Yet here we are, six months later, and the economic sky has not fallen on the Philippines.
Yes, the stock market has declined, but it has done so for the second year in a row, in part because investors viewed Philippine stocks as overvalued. Yes, the peso has weakened more than all the other regional currencies against the resurgent dollar, but not by an alarming margin over its peers. More importantly, the widespread joblessness and broad economic meltdown predicted by Mr. Duterte’s so-called “haters” have failed to materialize.
In fact, all indications are pointing to another banner year for the Philippines.
According to an article published on Bloomberg last week, the Philippines “is anticipated to post the strongest growth of any major Asian economy in 2017, building up on a solid run in recent years.” It goes on to quote a study by Japan’s Nomura Holdings saying that the Philippine economy “starts 2017 from a position of strength and can better withstand the impact of rising external risks than most other countries in Asia.”
Nomura points out that the main driver for the local economy will continue to be domestic demand and investment spending, which will offset the expected weakness in the country’s export sector.
This doesn’t mean that risks are absent, or that the naysayers are wrong. We must be watchful. And more significantly, we must make the most of the environment in which we collectively find ourselves today.
Recognizing that Mr. Duterte was brought to power by the grievances of millions of Filipinos who saw—over the past six years—a few of their countrymen accumulate astounding wealth and flaunt this on social media, while the masses suffered daily commuter train breakdowns and mind-numbing, four-hour commutes, we all have a responsibility to ensure that the benefits of economic prosperity are spread out as equitably as possible.
Are you appalled by the spate of extrajudicial killings going on today? Then you should speak out against them. But you should also help lay the foundations for a future democratically elected administration that will not be voted into office by a populace frustrated by their leaders’ inaction.
The challenge for the Duterte administration is to make everything that’s going well for the Philippines work for every Filipino. It can do that by channeling some of that political resolve it has demonstrated in its war on drugs into getting the ball rolling on job-generating (and badly needed) big-ticket infrastructure projects. Mr. Duterte should resist the temptation to adopt his predecessor’s mindset that the economy will take care of itself without the Chief Executive providing the impetus for action.
Indeed, the challenge for all of us—as stakeholders in this country’s present and future—is to make every chip on the table, every ace in our hand, count toward improving the economic lot of Filipinos.
It doesn’t matter who you voted for. All Filipinos of every creed or political stripe and color need three square meals a day, a roof over their head, quality education, a stable job, affordable healthcare and reliable public infrastructure.
Let’s get to work.