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By Cielito F. Habito
Elections always perk up the Philippine economy. Yesterday’s elections are one important factor that drives analysts’ expectations that this year’s growth in our gross domestic product (GDP) will match or exceed its 6.6 percent growth last year. A quick scan of GDP growth data over the past 25 years would readily show that election years tend to be marked by higher than usual economic growth. In the election years of 2004, 2007 and 2010, our GDP grew by 6.2, 7.2 and 7.3 percent respectively, as against an average of only 4.4 percent in the nonelection years since then. While there are surely many other determinants of economic growth, the above data seem to suggest that elections have a substantial growth-inducing effect on the economy, pushing growth by up to 2-3 percentage points. How does that additional growth come about?
Posted: May 14th, 2013 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
Philippine export earnings in February fell by a hefty 15.6 percent from last year, the National Statistics Office reported last week. The fall largely traces to an even heftier drop during the same period (-36.5 percent) in our electronics exports, which still comprise our single largest export product category. Global demand for personal computers has slumped in recent months, spurring a deep decline in electronics exports worldwide.
Posted: April 15th, 2013 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
Consider the following issues that persistently hound us and get in the way of our ability to move toward more inclusive growth and development:
Posted: January 28th, 2013 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
The underground economy, a.k.a. the informal economy, makes up an estimated 40 percent of our reported gross domestic product (GDP) nationwide, and about the same percentage of total employment.
Posted: January 21st, 2013 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
One million less Filipino families experienced hunger in the fourth quarter compared to the third, Social Weather Stations reported recently. Hunger incidence dropped to 16.3 percent of our families, a steep decline of almost 5 percentage points from 21 percent, SWS reported in August.
Posted: January 14th, 2013 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
We’ve heard so much about the United States’ impending “fiscal cliff” in recent weeks, and the harm it could inflict well beyond the American economy. Here at home, there is so much optimism on the outlook for the Philippine economy with its surprising growth performance and a general upswing in business confidence due to perceived governance improvements.
Posted: January 7th, 2013 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
My column last appeared on Christmas Day six years ago, when it was still in the Inquirer’s business section. My message then remains timely, so allow me to reprise what I wrote at the time, hopefully to a wider readership this time. We Filipinos look forward to Christmas with such keen anticipation, starting from the [...]
Posted: December 24th, 2012 in Columnists,Columns,Editor's Pick,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
What do you do when 120 people claiming to represent close to 3,000 families march nearly 400 kilometers over two weeks to protest a development project purportedly meant to help them, but of which they assert the contrary?
Posted: December 17th, 2012 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
I LIKE to describe Muslim Mindanao as a gem in the rough. I’ve already written on the region’s key assets as a prime investment area: superior agro-climatic conditions, abundant primary resources, large tracts of idle lands, and wage rates lower than elsewhere in the country. And with the Muslim majority population in Southeast Asia, the region possesses a natural edge in meeting demands for goods and services in the wider Asean market.
Posted: December 10th, 2012 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
“PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC growth likely slowed in Q3,” blared a news headline about a forecast attributed to a large investment bank, just a few days before the official data came out—announcing the exact opposite. It can be hazardous indeed to make fearless forecasts on the economy, especially when released shortly before official data are due to come out. But then again, most financial institutions had actually predicted a slower third quarter, only to be proven wrong with the third-quarter data showing a surprising 7.1-percent surge instead. This is well beyond what was already considered a surprising 6.4-percent growth posted in the first quarter. Economics has never been a precise science, and not even the most sophisticated mathematical or statistical tools can help when there simply are too many unknowns in the equation.
Posted: December 3rd, 2012 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
In any society, there is the state (visibly manifested by, but not equivalent to, the government) and there is business (the private enterprise sector). Both wield tremendous power, impacting directly on people’s lives and their environments, shaping their futures with what they do and how they do it. Often, both are accused of consolidating their power in an unholy alliance that corners society’s benefits for their leaders at the expense of the general public. For many, this view was reinforced by how western governments dealt with the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 (e.g., through massive bailouts of the very institutions whose misdeeds caused the crisis itself, using resources from the pockets of—who else?—citizen taxpayers, the primary victims of the crisis).
Posted: November 19th, 2012 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
By Cielito F. Habito
“The Manila International Airport is the only place where you have to line up nine times—count them—before you finally get to board your plane to travel abroad,” lamented Assistant Secretary Geronimo Sy, head of the Office for Competition in the Department of Justice. We both recently addressed an audience of judges in the Roundtable on Competition Policy and Law, organized jointly by his office and the Philippine Judicial Academy. “Everywhere else I know, you only need to line up three, maybe four times at most,” he asserted.
Posted: November 12th, 2012 in Columnists,Columns,Inquirer Opinion | Read More »
