THIS IS in reaction to the news item titled ?Gov?t may still have to import rice.? (Inquirer, 8/17/10) The significant drop in rice production by 10.26 percent?that is, to 6.62 million metric tons (MT)?in the first semester of 2010 is a surprise. In late March this year, government agencies estimated paddy rice output at 7 million MT, representing a 3.4 percent decline from the first-half figures last year. Subsequently in May, the Department of Agriculture scaled down its expected palay production in 2010 to 17 million MT from earlier estimates of 17.4 million to 18.0 million MT.

Understandably, given our limited resources, weather prediction is a risky endeavor. But what went wrong with the DA estimates? Erroneous production estimates could lead to over-importation, or the country could be caught flatfooted with insufficient buffer stock. Are the reports on rice production and inventory reliable? Were El Niño funds judiciously deployed?

Are rice imports called for, and when should the country negotiate? According to FNRI?s recently released six-month study (2008) on rice consumption, our annual intake is estimated at 116 kilos per person as against the Bureau of Statistics (BAS) index of 120 kilos. Based on the reported inventory, production and first-semester rice importation, our rice stocks as of June 30, 2010 were placed at 3.832 million MT. At this level, our country appears secure with an unusually high buffer stock good for 130 days or up to the first week of November 2010, coinciding with our farmers major October-December harvest season.

?MANUEL Q. BONDAD,

manuelbondad@yahoo.com