RECENTLY, THE INQUIRER published some statistics on the number of people killed in election-related violence from 1992 to 2007. The lowest number (45) was in the 1998 elections, where Joseph ?Erap? Estrada routed opponents Joe de Venecia, Renato de Villa and Raul Roco for the presidency. The highest (148) was in the 2004 contest where Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was proclaimed by the Commission on Elections (?Hello Garci?) and Congress (?Noted?) as the winner over Fernando Poe Jr. and Raul Roco. That election also registered the highest number (261) of people wounded.

The 2007 senatorial elections had 121 casualties and 176 wounded, surprisingly high for a non-presidential contest. The three elections under GMA?s watch (in 2001, 2004 and 2007) killed 307 and wounded 598, for an average of about 102 killed and about 199 wounded per election. The three previous elections totaled only 170 killed and 336 wounded, averaging about 56 killed and 112 wounded per election. The rise (almost double) in casualties and wounded in elections held during GMA?s presidency is an ominous portent for the May 10 polls.

Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence & Terrorism Research, which tracks these numbers, warns that the 2010 polls may be the most violent in recent history. Already, over 90 people have been killed in the run-up to the May 10 elections (including the 57 victims of the Maguindanao massacre).

Dante Jimenez, head of the Volunteers Against Crime and Corruption (VACC) and a member of the presidential commission created to dismantle private armies, seems to concur with Banlaoi?s warning. Jimenez is particularly concerned by the threat of at least 117 so-called private armies being monitored by the new commission.

Given the incompetence with which the Comelec is handling preparations for the first-ever nationwide automated elections in Philippine history, the risk of violence is indeed high. Adding to this need to ensure legal immunity for GMA after nine years of criminal impunity is what now powers the course of midnight appointments, including a new AFP chief of staff and a new Supreme Court chief justice. All these just add more magma to the eruption building up in the hearts of Filipinos.

With all these intertwined threats of violence and confluence of events, many now fear we won?t make it to May 10 before lawless violence spills out to the streets. That would then create a justification for the proclamation of martial law.

Or is that the scenario really being planned?

?JOSE OSIAS,

jzosias@gmail.com