The looming rice crisis must not be mistaken for a natural food shortage. It is a human disaster waiting to happen due to policy and institutional failures.

For instance, the International Rice Research Institute is in the Philippines. It is developing high-yielding rice varieties. Yet, the Philippines imports rice from Thailand and Vietnam.

Let us learn from history. In 1943, Bengal was hit by a famine that killed 1.5 million people. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen called it a human disaster, not a food shortage (Sen 1981) because the government at that time persisted in exporting rice even though a huge part of its population was hungry. Sen said that the government was remiss in enforcing policies regulating food production and supply. Bengal had enough rice supply, but businessmen chose to export the staple crop instead, for more profit. Learning from this experience, India bans rice exports, except for the fancy varieties, to this day.

Sen said no famine has ever occurred under a democracy (Sen 1999)—and it will not if we play our cards intelligently. Now, why will a food shortage happen to us when we are a democratic country? The Philippines could yet prove the laureate wrong. More than the fact that the fast-food chains Jollibee and McDonald’s don’t offer “half a cup of rice,” the looming crisis is a result of a policy failure that can be traced to the following:

1. The unabated expansion of banana plantations, notably in Mindanao, at the expense of thousands of hectares of rice fields turned into banana plantations.

2. The focus of the Department of Agriculture (DA) on biofuels. The DA should focus more on helping farmers get more incentives from rice production. With the DA’s current thrust, it is either we eat bananas, or process and export tons of jatropha. The Vietnamese agriculture minister has pointed to massive industrialization in Vietnam as a threat to his country’s capability to feed its own population in the future. Meaning, our government’s plea with Vietnam for rice guarantees in the future does not hold water.

3. There may be ample budget for irrigation. But here’s the rub: the Philippine government has not looked into the marketing aspect. Naturally, farmers would prefer to produce more profitable crops.

So, what are the solutions? Simple, common sense. A farmer put it this way: If we want to eat rice and don’t want to eat bananas, we should plant more rice. No further explanation. Congress should just pass laws prohibiting the conversion of rice fields into banana plantations.

Secondly, the Department of Trade and Industry should help farmers earn more from rice production. The looming scenario in the short term is that rice prices will go up with any shortage. People will starve. There may be enough food to eat but, just the same, people can’t afford to buy food.

In which case, price regulation is a must.

CHRISTOPHER RYAN B. MABOLOC, graduate student, Erasmus Mundus-Masters in Applied Ethics, Center for Applied Ethics, Linkoping University, Sweden (via email)