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Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 21:25:00 09/11/2008

Filed Under: Crisis, ASEAN, Politics

MANILA, Philippines?Samak Sundaravej is out as prime minister, stripped of his post by Thailand?s Constitutional Court. It is no coincidence that the court ruling came after thousands of Thais took over the government office of the man they regard as the Machiavellian proxy of the disgraced former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, and vowed to stay there until he stepped down from office.

The sight of a citizens? uprising is stirring; it reminds us of our own people-powered history. And yet the case against Samak is not black and white. Unlike our own experience with people power, the continuing drama in Thailand is not a morality play.

Samak came to power after the military government that ousted Thaksin ceded political control and allowed new elections. He assumed Thaksin?s old office in large part because he benefited from Thaksin s political legacy: a dramatic realignment of the sources of political power in Thailand.

But he also inherited Thaksin?s controversies, particularly an alleged climate of corruption that became the Thai military?s rationale for deposing the billionaire businessman in a coup in 2006.

Samak, however, added his own controversies, riling the public. He virtually waged war on the Thai media. He opened himself to conflict-of-interest charges when he decided to continue his cooking show (he is a renowned chef in Thailand) even after he assumed political leadership. And that proved to be his undoing. But perhaps the most embarrassing of his many missteps was his resurrection of the discredited idea of forming an Organization of Rice Exporting Countries (OREC) amid an international rice emergency. The suggestion immediately defined Thailand, the world?s leading rice exporter, as dictated by greed and unconcerned about the effect of controlled prices on rice-importing countries like the Philippines. The reaction from the Thai public (and reportedly from Thailand?s royal house) was swift and unequivocal, and Samak quickly withdrew the proposal. But the damage had been done. Because of this and many other scandals, Samak was damaged goods.

The timing of the crisis cannot be more serious. Thailand is set to assume the rotating leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in November (a term which may last longer than the usual year, if the ASEAN Charter is successfully ratified).

And yet while the case against Thaksin was robust, the case against Samak is shaky, at best. Samak?s fault was that he did not represent Thailand?s old elites. Instead, he came to power because Thaksin had redrawn the political map, and channeled power, in particular the power to elect key political leaders, to the periphery, to farmers and peasants. Thaksin?s populist policies created a new power bloc solid enough to return Thaksin-era politicians to office.

This populism explains why Samak raised the OREC proposal. An association of rice exporters that would set global prices would have directly benefited the very rice farmers who make up the Thaksin power bloc. And this very populism is the reason the streets of Bangkok are clogged with anti-Samak protesters. The demonstrators, essentially, want to return to the old ways of governance.

In the old days, political power was sanctioned by Thailand?s revered king and shared by business, the civil service and the military. In Thaksin?s political map, the king remains the source of legitimacy, but political power is concentrated in new hands.

Several days ago, Samak?s foreign minister resigned his post. Because he was perceived as very close to the king, the resignation was received as a withdrawal of royal sanction. Last week, Samak declared a state of emergency; after an initial clash, the protesters remained on the street while soldiers looked on. This studied neutrality was interpreted by many as a sign that Samak?s government could not rely on the military?s support, too.

In effect, the crisis in Thailand has held the country?s democracy hostage. Samak was catapulted to power because essentially free elections put him there. The protesters, however, for reasons both good and bad, wanted to undo the election results.



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