MANILA, Philippines—Faced with widespread—and intensifying—opposition, President gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has abandoned her quest to secure acceptance from both Congress and the courts, as well as from the public, of an ill-conceived Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) on ancestral domain that her administration negotiated with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. Press Secretary Jesus Dureza said Thursday the government would not sign the MOA “in its present form” and would instead review its provisions.

The move is a complete turnaround from the administration’s earlier position, which was to push for its adoption, even if it meant amending the Constitution. The constitutionality of the MOA has been challenged before the Supreme Court and at least one justice has indicated that some of its provisions might have indeed violated the fundamental law. While the administration initially sought to defend the MOA, Dureza said Malacañang would no longer wait for the Court to decide but simply refuse to sign it. And he blamed the MILF for it, saying, in reference to the shooting, killing and burning rampage committed by rebel forces in several towns of Mindanao, “They committed terrorist activities.”

But if the situation has turned into a bloody mess, it is a mess largely of the administration’s own making. Firstly, it negotiated without consulting other stakeholders, like the people in the areas proposed for inclusion in the Bangsamoro homeland, so that it was caught by surprise by the vehemence of the opposition to the MOA. Secondly, its panel of negotiators apparently gave in to many MILF demands without considering their legal implications. Indeed the MOA, because of its many constitutional flaws and its many objectionable provisions which would guarantee its rejection in a plebiscite, appears to have been designed to fail, giving rise to suspicions that it is meant to hide some hidden, self-serving agenda, specifically a constitutional amendment that would allow Ms Arroyo to remain in power beyond 2010.

There is no clearer proof of how poorly studied and badly crafted the MOA is than that the administration is now calling for a review of its provisions. The irony is that the review is likely to be assigned to the same retired military generals who botched up the job in the first place: Presidential Peace Adviser Hermogenes Esperon and the chief government negotiator, Rodolfo Garcia.

There is an even bigger problem here: MILF negotiators have said they consider the MOA a done deal. The administration knows this, and this is the reason it is careful to avoid talking about a re-negotiation. So how will it persuade the MILF to take part in revisiting the MOA? Or failing that, how does it propose to make the MILF accept any changes it might introduce, unilaterally, to make some provisions conform with the Constitution or acceptable to most stakeholders?

Further complicating an already explosive situation is the government’s pledge to bring to justice the commanders of MILF forces that murdered civilians and looted several communities in Mindanao. The MILF has said it would deal with them according to its own processes and vowed to protect them if government forces moved to effect their arrest. That looks like a signal that they would get nothing worse than a slap on the wrist, which will not sit well with the communities they had victimized. It’s an attitude that will not win the MILF any friends or support for a peace agreement, but maybe they don’t care? On the other hand, if the government tries to take the rebel commanders by force, it could spark a wider conflagration in Mindanao.

To all indications, the peace process has been stalled. And it is hard to see how it can be restarted again any time soon, given the heat and acrimony generated by the MOA’s disclosure and the mutual distrust and the violence it has spawned. The one hopeful note amid the gnashing of teeth and finger-pointing is that both sides have not completely shut the door to a dialogue. Ibrahim Murad, the MILF chief, said they remain “optimistic that they can still save the peace process,” although he has not said how that can be done.

But with the MOA now in shreds, it seems certain that Ms Arroyo will not see the beginning of a lasting peace in the last two years of her administration. The most she can hope for is that there will be no war—and that still depends on how both sides handle the delicate situation now prevailing.