IT?S A SCENARIO THAT?S BEEN BANDIED about so often commentators have taken it almost as a given. And the scenario is that outgoing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, having won a seat in the House of Representatives (for the second district of Pampanga), would launch a bid for the speakership, counting on the superior numbers her party the Lakas-CMD-Kampi enjoys in the House. And then, as Speaker, Arroyo would lead the charge toward Charter Change, specifically toward a change in the system of government from presidential to parliamentary, assuring herself of the post of prime minister and thereby effectively extending her rule and reducing the incoming President to a ceremonial figure.

Alternatively, or perhaps at the same time, ?Speaker? Arroyo would use her position as Speaker to threaten her successor with impeachment, perhaps the minute he begins making noises about filing charges of corruption or plunder against her and her family. This would not be entirely impossible, again given her influence over a large number of party-mates in the House.

About the only person I?ve met so far who believes the President will ?surprise her critics and not vie for the speakership? is Rep. Edcel Lagman of Albay. And there?s good reason he refuses to believe the scenarios written by conspiracy theorists and Arroyo sycophants alike. The reason is that he stands a good chance of winning the speakership itself. On his third consecutive term, Lagman certainly has the bearing of a Speaker: a gravitas that marks him out as a ?serious? person, a shock of lush, white Ted Kennedy-esque hair and a way of speaking that makes it appear like he?s delivering a privilege speech each time he addresses an audience, even if it?s only this columnist.

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A SCRAPPY fighter in the halls of Congress, Lagman has built a network of allies among legislators. In his previous post as chair of the all-important (because it deals with money) Committee on Appropriations, he helped so many colleagues in their fund releases that he has been able to call in favors for his favorite bills.
He pooh-poohs the bluster of incoming Quezon City congressman Sonny Belmonte, widely touted as the favored candidate for Speaker of presumptive President Noynoy Aquino and the Liberal Party. Belmonte was quoted in a newspaper as saying that the Speakership ?is in the bag? for him because he and the LP?s would be able to build a coalition with members of other political parties in the House, most notably the Nationalist People?s Coalition.
?It?s an empty bag,? Lagman says with a smile. ?Our party is still the biggest party in the House, and we can count on the support of many other allies.? Besides, he notes, Belmonte is himself a newcomer to the Liberal Party, having bolted Lakas only just before he filed his candidacy for Congress. ?He?s also been away for quite awhile,? adds Lagman, referring to the three terms Belmonte served as mayor of Quezon City. Nine years, in political time, is indeed an eternity.

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BUT who is this man Edcel Lagman who is now aspiring to be fourth in the line of succession if anything should happen to the new President?

During his first campaign for Congress in 1987 (after his first three terms, he made way for his daughter Krisel, who just won her second term as Mayor of Tabaco City), Lagman says he sought out the local New People?s Army leaders to inform them of his candidacy and to warn them that they better not mess with him. This year, the local NPA again began making noises about charging candidates with ?revolutionary taxes,? in exchange for ?permits to campaign? in rebel-controlled areas. ?I talked to their emissaries and told them how dare they make me and my [local] candidates pay, when my family has sacrificed so much for the rebel cause,? recalls Lagman.

He was referring to his brothers Hermon and Ka Popoy. Hermon was a young lawyer who was picked up from the family home by soldiers looking for Popoy, already then a well-known activist and organizer. The Lagmans never saw Hermon again and it is believed that he was tortured and killed by the Marcos military. Ka Popoy went underground and surfaced after the Edsa Revolt as a labor leader and urban poor organizer, but he too ended up ?devoured? by the revolutionary forces, gunned down just outside UP?s Bahay ng Alumni.

So did the Bicol NPA cut him some slack and allow him to campaign in their areas without paying? ?I didn?t even ask for permission, I just entered their areas and campaigned.?

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IT?S THIS kind of courage and self-confidence that Lagman employs within the House, where he wields the kind of silent authority over even older colleagues.
It?s the kind of influence he also uses to push forward controversial and even progressive legislation, including the abolition of the death penalty, debt repudiation, compensation for victims of human rights violations during Martial Law and the criminalization of enforced disappearances, the last ?in memory of my brothers.?
There is also, of course, also the very controversial reproductive health bill, of which he was principal author. Of this bill, he says only half-jokingly: ?This is my last term. We better pass this early on!?
This is the kind of man and legislator Lagman is: loyal, dogged, daring and unafraid. Time will tell if these qualities will see him through his latest challenge, that of contesting the speakership of the House, given the ?popular? scenario involving a President-turned-legislator and given the ascendancy of a President who not only enjoys a popular mandate but also promises to pursue a daring agenda for change.
Whoever or whatever prevails, Edcel Lagman will be right there in the middle of a fight, spoiling for action.