THE LAST quarter of 2009 saw tectonic shifts of events that changed the shape of the political map and that framed the course of politics in 2010, an election year.

The first of these defining moments was the presidential bid of Sen. Benigno ?Noynoy? Aquino III. In the last opinion surveys for the year, conducted during the first two weeks of December, Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia found that Aquino and his vice-presidential teammate, Sen. Manuel ?Mar? Roxas, maintained their lead, with the May election less than five months.

The announcement by Aquino of his presidential candidacy on Sept. 9, was a political earthquake that radically changed the electoral map. His announcement heralded the entry into the presidential race of a dark horse and forced a radical realignment of presidential contenders, sweeping Aquino?s rivals aside to the sidelines, from which they have been struggling to catch up with the 2-to-1 lead of Aquino.

Aquino spurted out to the frontline in the first survey in late September after his announcement with 50 percent, much higher than his rivals, including Sen. Manuel Villar, disgraced former President Joseph Estrada, and administration candidates identified with President Macapagal-Arroyo, and Sen. Richard Gordon.

Since then, Aquino has maintained his grip as the front-runner, with a preference rating (around 50 percent) that has not been threatened by his rivals.

The surveys over the past three months forced a revision of the political issues. The central dynamic of the campaign season is that the agenda of the debate will be defined by Aquino, not by his rivals. Aquino holds the initiative and his rivals will be fighting him on his own terms, not on their terms.

Up until today, the emergence of Aquino as serious presidential contender from the shadows of the political wilderness has been a stunning phenomenon that is hard to explain. The explanation that Aquino is benefited by the afterglow of the death of his mother, the late President Corazon Aquino, and the aura of the public service record/ or reputation of his parents is insufficient. The upsurge of Aquino from relative political obscurity, as member of the House of Representatives and the Senate, defies conventional political wisdom. In my long years of political reporting as a journalist, I have observed a groundswell of popularity for a man or woman of the hour since the 1946 election, when we became an independent republic, on only two occasions: the election of President Ramon Magsaysay in 1953, and the accession of Cory Aquino to the presidency on the back of the 1986 People Power Revolution. The popular groundswell for Aquino, as shown by the surveys, approaches these two previous phenomena, and confounds his rivals, who don?t seem to find the formula to counter the strong undercurrent of the support for Aquino in the opinion polls.

The Pulse Asia survey of Dec. 8 to 10 shows that Aquino continues to lead other presidential candidates by a sizable margin. Aquino garnered 45 percent of the voters, with only two other contenders obtaining double-digit support: Villar, 23 percent, and Estrada, 19 percent. Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro polled 5 percent, Gordon, 1 percent, and evangelist Eduardo ?Brother Eddie? Villanueva, 1 percent.

As of December, the presidential race appeared to have narrowed to three, suggesting that the political system is moving back to the pre-martial law two-party system.

In the Oct. 9 survey, Aquino polled 44 percent and gained one point in December. Villar polled 23 percent in December, up 4 points from 19 percent in October. Estrada had 19 percent, up 8 points from 11 percent in October. Teodoro polled 5 percent in December, up 3 points from 2 percent in October. Their gains are too small to present a threat of overhauling Aquino?s lead.

The SWS survey of Dec. 5-10 found results that were nearly the same as those of Pulse Asia, indicating that Aquino has stabilized his big lead since September. From a list of 11 selected by the poll-takers, the survey found that Aquino held on to 46 percent, while Villar polled 27 percent, Estrada, 16 percent, and Teodoro, 5 percent. Villanueva and Gordon each got 1 percent.

From the above two surveys, none of those in the second tier of the narrowing list of presidential contenders appeared to be gaining considerable ground to catch up with the front-running Aquino, despite intensified attacks by his rivals over the past three months on at least three issues: his lack of solid record of achievement as a member of Congress and relative executive inexperience; the alleged anti-poor social policies of his mother?s presidency; and his still ambiguous policy position on the Hacienda Luisita holdings of the Aquino-Cojuangco family, relative to the agrarian reform program, in which President Aquino showed little political will to redistribute the land titles to peasants on the hacienda.

This line of attack appears to have failed to whittle down the wide lead of Aquino in the surveys. The findings suggest a major revision of the issues the Aquino rivals are raising against him in the remaining months of the campaign. Their issues seem to be ineffective.

Despite the surveys of the past three months, the Villar camp is holding on to the hope that his rating will rise. Villar supporter, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, said they were ?confident that survey numbers will improve next month. We have a very good candidate.?

Cayetano added: ?The higher the lead, the greater the fall. The bigger they are, the bigger they fall.?

But Villar needs more than aphorisms to catch up.