MANILA, Philippines - WIth her declaration to run for Congress, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has finally confirmed the apprehension of many that she intends to stay in power beyond 2010. It is clear that her ultimate objective is to return to power by pushing Charter change as speaker of the House of Representatives and eventually becoming prime minister.

Failing that, she intends to be in a position of power and influence, not only to protect herself but also to use Congress as a platform to sustain her attacks against the incumbent president until she gets what she wants.

As is the wont of this administration, it must have other options in play that will allow GMA to hold on to power. Even this plan to become prime minister would have its sub-plots and sub-scenarios that would be firmed up depending on how developments unfold. But the ideal scenario for the GMA camp would have the following major elements:

First, it would like to pass a law that will call for a Constitutional Convention in 2010. The House is ready to pass such a law, although it would be more difficult to pass a similar bill in the Senate.

Second, it would like to elect a cooperative president in 2010. If a miracle propels Gibo Teodoro to become winnable, then he will be the one. But since this is close to impossible, they will likely enter into a secret deal with another, more winnable candidate. Who will this be? Only one thing is certain?that candidate will not be Noynoy Aquino.

The strategy, then, will be for the administration and their secret ally to focus their attack on Noynoy. Since Noynoy?s lead appears insurmountable, the objective is to reduce this lead to a difference that a ?Garci? or his high-tech counterpart can work magic on. Some argue that GMA?s secret ally, once he becomes president, is likely to renege on the bargain. Perhaps, but if GMA as speaker of the House holds damning evidence of cheating in the presidential elections, can he really afford to do so?

Third, the GMA camp would like to dominate both houses of Congress. This is important because it may not succeed in passing the Constitutional Convention law before May 2010, and thus would have to revert to the constituent assembly mode under the newly elected Congress.

Depending on developments, this scenario may be modified or other options implemented. But one thing will remain constant: GMA wants to remain in power beyond 2010. In fact, her desire to hold on to power grows even stronger as her days as President become even more numbered. Thus, the majority of Filipinos who are aching to be freed of her must become more vigilant and proactive in thwarting her designs.

First, we must resist all attempts to amend the Constitution. The proposal to hold a Constitutional Convention in 2010 must be opposed. Unfortunately, some groups, even among those who resisted earlier Cha-cha attempts, support the idea of changing the Constitution after 2010 and through a Constitutional Convention. They must reverse this stand. The timing and mode for changing the Constitution are secondary considerations. More critical are the proponent and the agenda driving the amendments. As long as the proponent is GMA and the agenda is her continued stay in power, we must resist constitutional change.

Second, we must strengthen our support for the candidacy of Noynoy Aquino. He is the candidate that GMA fears the most. We must make sure not only that he wins but also that he maintains a lead that would be difficult to cheat him out of. Since the 2010 elections with the untested automated system would be rife with pitfalls, we need to mobilize and be vigilant to ensure honest elections in 2010.

Third, we must vote against legislators, in the Senate and the House, who are with GMA or the administration ticket. We must also be wary of candidates who may have bolted Lakas-Kampi but are nevertheless in the mold of traditional and transactional politicians.

Even if Noynoy wins, GMA will not give up that easily. She will still try to use her dominance in Congress and her vast resources to push her agenda. Some argue that she will fail because the nature of Philippine politics is such that members of Congress will gravitate toward the winning president.

This assumption, however, fails to take into account two important factors. First, we never had a GMA in Congress, a former president with tremendous wealth who has an unquenchable desire for power. Second, Noynoy?s brand of politics prevents him from pursuing a policy of politics-as-usual in dealing with congressmen. It will not be easy for him, therefore, to gain adherents from the lot of traditional politicians in Congress, because he will have to chip away at their power and privileges if he is to fulfill his campaign promises.

The reality is that GMA is a problem that will continue to hound the country beyond 2010. Her desire for power adds to political instability not only today but even after the 2010 presidential elections. This problem will not disappear until she is successfully prosecuted for her crimes against the people or driven to exile. There will be no middle ground in dealing with her.

Francis M. Varela is the president of the Foundation for Economic Freedom. E-mail: fmvarela@abcapital.com.ph