MINDANAO is no stranger to violence. Insurgency, crime and family squabbles that spiral into clan wars, or rido, sapped for decades what could have been the country’s “breadbasket.” But the Maguindanao massacre of 52 civilians, including 25 journalists, plumbed new depths of savagery.
“Man is the cruelest animal,” Friedrich Nietzsche wrote. “At tragedies, bullfights, and crucifixions he has so far felt best on earth. And when he invented hell for himself, behold, that was his very heaven.”
The victims in the ambushed five-vehicle caravan were heading for Shariff Aguak. They were to file a certificate of candidacy for Buluan Vice Mayor Esmael Mangudadatu. He planned to challenge Andal Ampatuan for the governor’s post.
The women were accompanied by a media delegation, Sun Star reported. “They believed they were safe, protected by the Koranic prescription to spare women... No one could have predicted the ruthlessness that met the group.”
The women were slapped, made to eat Comelec forms and raped. Some were run over by vehicles. Others were beheaded, a crime Abu Sayyaf gleefully copied from Japanese World War II soldiers.
Bodies recovered included those of Mangudadatu’s wife, Genalyn, his two sisters and two lawyers. They were sprawled on the ground about three miles from where they were ambushed. Authorities dug up 23 bodies in a hillside mass grave. A provincial government backhoe, emblazoned with Governor Ampatuan’s name, was parked nearby
“The murders break all the rules of the blood feuds known as rido in Mindanao,” commented The National, an Abu Dhabi newspaper. “Until now, women, children and old people were never touched in rido,” The New York Times news blog quotes journalist Marites Vitug. “But Monday’s atrocity has changed all that.”
President Macapagal-Arroyo allowed the arming of her allies, like the Ampatuans. Now, she girds for the likelihood of massive retaliation. Those who sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.
Could these new depths of savagery have been foreseen?
Yes, guardedly reply two scholars, Ed. B. Prantilla and Ed. D. Cruz of the University of Southern Philippines. But a computer model is not a substitute for justice and law enforcement, they caution.
Prantilla and Cruz have been crafting a computer model that would pinpoint factors that trigger violence in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. In the ARMM, 36 percent of disputes, ranging from car smash-ups and water shortages to marriage dowries—led to clan wars or ridos.
In 2007, an Asia Foundation study identified 1,266 cases of rido feuds in Mindanao, going back to the 1930s. The report noted, “Out of the total number of rido cases documented, 64 percent remain unresolved. And half of the feuds began since 2000.”
Prantilla and Cruz sifted through 2,784 disputes in their paper, “Forecasting Incidence of Violent Disputes in ARMM.” They found the incendiary “triggers” include: (a) the dispute swirls around women, (b) involves maratabat or affront to dignity, usually in Muslim upper classes; (c) the parties are armed (d), somebody caused death to a member of the disputants.
If the parties are also literate, “the probability that a dispute will escalate into rido is 83 percent,” Prantilla and Cruz believe. “Its human cost cannot be overestimated.”
Political disputes in fact come behind five other “triggers.” Land disputes are the most volatile, followed by theft, conflicts with neighbors, family feuds and marital squabbles.
“There is some attraction in being able to forecast if a dispute will escalate into a violent one. Such capacity would enable one to intervene and defuse conflict. But can we really unravel the complex elements [that cause a dispute to erupt]?” Prantilla and Cruz ask.
Perennial violence in Mindanao is “extremely unstructured,” they point out. “Stakeholders don’t agree on root causes of the problem, hence also its solution.” As a result, armed conflict saps the economic development of the island, and beggars most provinces, particularly those in the ARMM.
Life expectancy in Maguindanao, for example, is 57 years, almost a generation shorter than La Union’s 74. Out of every 100 residents, 44 are functionally illiterate. And 45 percent lack potable water. Maguindanao is bracketed between Swaziland and Ghana by Philippine Human Development Report 2009.
The ARMM population has grown from 2,803,045 in 2000, to 4,120,795, as reported in the criticized 2007 Census of Population. That means an annual population growth rate of 5.46 percent—almost double national levels.
Often, protagonists have relatives in both rebel groups and clans. Thus, a clan war often escalates into an encounter between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Aborting a rido early can defuse conflict.
“They’re SOBs. But they are our SOBs.” The Arroyo regime used that old cynical yardstick to stay in power. Will the national and international uproar see the Ampatuans become an exception?
