The most exciting development in recent weeks is the decision of Sen. Noynoy Aquino to run for president in 2010 and the confirmation by surveys that he enjoys strong popularity and acceptance by the people.
His detractors and the skeptics claim that we do not know enough to entrust him our nation?s future. Indeed, the call for Noynoy to present a more detailed platform of government is legitimate. This is also true, by the way, for the other presidential candidates, as none of them have really engaged the nation in a detailed and sustained dialogue on their respective platforms.
It is a mistake, however, to say that the character of a prospective Noynoy presidency is not well defined. Together with Gilbert Teodoro and Joseph Estrada, Noynoy has the clearest image among the presidential candidates. Teodoro consistently defends his boss and vows to continue her programs. So, if you love Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, vote for Teodoro. Erap has not redefined himself, so his image remains that of his 1998-2001 presidency. On the other hand, Manny Villar projects himself as a poor boy that did well, an image that does not really define him as president. Chiz Escudero?s stock phrases and witty remarks provide us an image of a glib and clever president, but not much more. What about Noli de Castro? No one really knows what he stands for.
In Noynoy?s case, he has defined national interest, good governance, transparency, accountability and rejection of corruption to be the main ideals that will animate his presidency. These ideals, because they appear so genuine in him, already give us enough flavor of how the country will fare under him. For business, I believe that the following will be the main benefits from a Noynoy presidency:
First, Noynoy?s style of governance will create a level playing field in the business sector. The country?s business environment now suffers from a very negative image. The perception (and, most likely, the reality as well) is that major business deals almost always have a political dimension. This is not only true for transactions involving government assets, but even those that appear to be purely private sector transactions. The touted rivalry between tycoons Manuel Pangilinan and Ramon Ang, for instance, is viewed not only as competition in business but as a political struggle as well, attended with a lot of rumors and speculations about the involvement of powerful padrinos and power brokers. The same holds true in the case of the Lopez family?s business travails. The end result of this poisoned environment is that other players, who are unable to figure out or participate in these political games, hold back on their investments in the country. It is no surprise that investments as a percentage of GDP have consistently declined during the Arroyo dministration. Under Noynoy, government and politics will become less of a factor in the business sector. Investment decisions will be based primarily on market factors and a transparent set of policies and rules that will apply equally to everyone, and not on political favors.
Second, Noynoy?s rejection of corruption means that he will be able to focus government?s limited resources on programs and projects that have the most significant impact on development. For the business sector, this means additional infrastructure of higher quality and improved social services for its workforce, i.e., health and education services. Noynoy will dismantle what Jun Lozada described as a dysfunctional procurement system where spending programs are driven not by an assessment of critical needs but by suppliers and promoters who are able to structure projects that allow decision makers to maximize their cuts.
Third, Noynoy?s policy of transparency and accountability will lead to better fiscal management. As mentioned, he will cut down waste and will therefore be able to control the growth in spending. Moreover, his unwillingness to compromise will allow fiscal managers to implement genuine reforms in tax administration and collect the right taxes.
Fourth, Noynoy?s vision of governance will make more good people want to work for government again. In the latter years of the Arroyo administration, government (with a few exceptions) became the haven for the inept and the corrupt. Under Noynoy, government will attract more competent, sincere and honest people. For business, this means a more professional and responsive bureaucracy.
Finally, the criticism that a Noynoy presidency could see a repeat of the Cory presidency is unfair because President Aquino was not a failure. Aside from restoring democracy, she leveled the playing field in business, dismantled crony capitalism and restored people?s faith in government. She also initiated the moves toward liberalization and privatization, which President Ramos continued to push during his time. Of course, there were missed objectives, and these were largely because President Aquino had to manage the intramurals among different groups with conflicting objectives and ideologies, conflicts that contributed to the violent coups. This will not be the case for Noynoy. While different groups of people will support his candidacy, his team will basically be a homogenous group that will have centrist political views and whose economic policies will be supportive of an open, modern and liberalized economy.
Noynoy will be good for business, the economy and development. How invigorating to be optimistic now, coming from the despair and sense of helplessness that burdened us these past few years.
(Francis M. Varela is president of the Foundation for Economic Freedom. E-mail: fmvarela@abcapital.com.ph)