At the outset, let me say that I regard Corazon Aquino as the Philippines? most important president of the postwar period, since it was through her leadership that the country got out from under the authoritarian rule of Ferdinand Marcos, and democracy was restored.
In addition, I would say that she is also our most popular president, based on the polls about public satisfaction with her performance when in office, and about public trust in her afterwards, up to the present.
Survey data on Cory Aquino go back to the July 1985 socio-political opinion poll by the Bishops-Businessmen?s Conference, which looked into the popularity of potential opponents to Marcos in the next presidential election, then scheduled for 1987. Cory was not at the top of the list at that time, but somewhere in the middle. I recall that Salvador ?Doy? Laurel, Jovito Salonga and Agapito ?Butz? Aquino were more popular than she was. (There may have been others too; I do not have the BBC reference with me as I write this.)
When Marcos called for a ?snap election? to be held in February 1986, and the opposition agreed to unite under Cory as their common candidate, the voters strongly rallied to her. The best evidence that she truly won the snap election was her victory in the Namfrel count, which gave her a convincing 60 percent of the vote.
(The official count, by the Batasang Pambansa, had it the other way around, with 60 percent for Marcos. The Ateneo-Social Weather Stations survey of May 1986 asked respondents for whom they had voted, and found 66 percent saying it was Cory?a bit of overstatement, relative to the Namfrel outcome, that is normal whenever a poll asks people about their vote after an election has already been settled. Incidentally, the May 1986 survey also found that the people?s top basis for considering Cory a legitimate president was ?people power,? rather than a feeling of certainty that she won the election.)
In May 1986, when Cory got her first net satisfaction rating of +53, her honeymoon was just starting. The second survey round, in October 1986, obtained her peak rating of +72, which is the record high for all presidents to this day. The third round, in March 1987 or just after the ratification of the new Constitution in February, got her a +69; times were euphoric.
Up to April 1992, in the 18 SWS national surveys (rather few, due to lack of sponsors then) of the Aquino period, Cory?s net satisfaction rating was Very Good (+50 or more) six times, Good (+30 to +49) four times, Moderate (+10 to +29) six times, and Mediocre (-9 to +9), twice (+7 both times). Thus the range of net satisfaction ratings of Cory?s performance as president was from a low of +7 to a high of +72.
For comparison, the ranges of net satisfaction with other presidents have been: Fidel Ramos, from +1 to +69 in 27 national surveys (10 Very Goods, 5 Goods, 10 Moderates, and 2 Mediocres); Joseph Estrada, from +5 to +69 in 10 national surveys (4 Very Goods, 3 Moderates, and 3 Mediocres); and Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, from -50 to +30 in 40 national surveys as of February 2009. (SWS uses the terms Poor for -10 to -29, Bad for -30 to -49, and Very Bad for -50 or worse.)
For all presidents, popularity tends to be relatively high at the beginning, or honeymoon period, and then tends to decline later on. The decline is not smooth, but ragged, depending on events. The chart for all presidents together is even more ragged, on account of periodic new honeymoons. This saw-tooth pattern, long evident from polling in the United States, therefore applies to the Philippines also. By now, based on experience with a great variety of topics, not only in politics and governance, I always recommend an initial hypothesis that the patterns of Filipino opinions and attitudes are similar to global patterns, unless proven otherwise by survey research.
Right after the two serious military coup attempts of August 1987 and December 1989 struck, SWS did rapid polls in Metro Manila to look into popular attitudes towards the government and the rebel military groups. In both periods, the polls showed the people rallying to support President Aquino and to oppose the coup plotters. While accepting the validity of the complaints of the rebel military, most people felt that those complaints did not justify attempts to topple her by means of a coup. Aside from publishing these findings, I also presented them privately to the president and to groups of high military officers.
After presidents leave office, from time to time SWS keeps track of their popularity by means of trust ratings. ?Net trust? is the percentage with much trust minus the percentage with little trust in an individual. As of the February 2009 SWS national survey, there were 60 percent with much trust in Cory Aquino, and 21 percent with little trust in her, for a ?Good? net trust rating of +38 (correctly rounded).
As of last February, public trust in Cory Aquino was higher than trust in former presidents Estrada and Ramos. Cory recovered strongly from a low point in late 2000 (during ?juetenggate?), when people were probably wondering why she joined those trying to oust Erap. Erap made a comeback from poor ratings in 2001, I think because his confinement for several years amounted to some atonement. FVR?s recent ratings are, in my view, being held down by his efforts to support the very unpopular current president.
The restoration of democracy made it possible for open opinion polling to grow and mature. One of Cory Aquino?s great legacies to the Filipino people is that she provided the political environment needed to nurture mechanisms for the scientific articulation of their collective will.
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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
