PRESIDENT Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo stirred a hornet’s nest when Cabinet proxies floated the trial balloon that she planned to run for Congress to represent the second district of Pampanga in the 2010 national election.

The revelation not only threw in disarray the newly formed merger of Lakas-CMD and Kampi, the President’s own party, but also prompted former President Fidel Ramos, chair emeritus of the merged parties, to warn her to stop “titillating” the nation and declare her political plans after she steps down in 2010, saying the uncertainty was creating political instability.

In Tokyo after the news broke out, the President clammed up and stonewalled. She said, “I don’t want to talk politics. I don’t want to talk about elections.”

For want of anything sensible to say, her aides in Manila came to the rescue, asking her critics to respect the President’s silence. “As much as a President Ramos has the right to give his opinion,” one aide known for her clueless public statements blurted out, “I think President Arroyo has also the right to keep her plans in 2010 in private.”

What arrant nonsense. Any presidential spokesperson who claims that the President has the right to keep her political plans under wraps, especially on the most crucial question of the day, is out of her depth and should be dismissed summarily. The President has no right to remove herself from the center of the debate over who succeeds Ms Arroyo after 2010, whether it is she herself or somebody else. This is an abdication of the presidential function as the foremost interlocutor of public policy and of her plans for the presidential succession. The presidency is the most important bully pulpit, and to keep the public uninformed of her intentions in the midst of speculations about whether she will step down with dignity in 2010 or push devious schemes seeking the extension of her term does violence to transparency in governance. The President’s plans after 2010 are not private matters and are not a state secret.

The revelation of her plans to seek a seat in the House has raised the legal issue of whether or not she would be automatically considered as resigned. This issue was raised by Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who is not sure about what the Constitution says about this issue, which is unprecedented, since no Philippine president has ever taken the step of running for Congress after his or term. This issue provides lawyers grist for it may be argued that one of the possible consequences of such a move is that the President confirms her status as a lame duck from the time she decides to file her certificate of candidacy for the House.

This ambiguity hangs overhead as the House majority plans to convene a constituent assembly when the President delivers her State of the Nation Address on July 27 to implement House Resolution 1109, convening Con-ass without Senate participation to amend the Constitution. Since it is suspected that the purpose behind Con-ass is to provide presidential allies in the House the key to unlock the gates opening the way for the introduction of constitutional amendments, including a shift from the presidential system to the parliamentary system, Con-ass would be test of the President’s capacity to get what she wants. The President has to give a signal to her troops in the House to push their Con-ass scheme or to shift their strategy to the option of her running for a House seat.

Whether or not the House majority can push through the Con-ass remains doubtful as the days go by and as opposition from strategic sectors, including the Church, many business chambers and civil-society groups, mounts. The failure to convene Con-ass during the Sona should see the collapse of this scheme and should drive the President to the exit option of running for a seat in the House. Once the President is perceived by her allies in the House and key sectors of government, especially the military, to be wavering, and she is unable to push through the Con-ass option, the meltdown of her government will begin. This should be a confirmation that the President cannot make the Con-ass option fly, leaving her limping in the remaining months of her presidency.

Ms Arroyo claims she still has her economic programs in place to be completed with her last Sona. But if Con-ass collapses, she can no longer push economic reform measures, especially new taxes, to bolster her economic stimulus package. No candidate for Congress, especially reelectionists, are likely to support new tax legislation on the eve of the election. Her level of performance and delivery of results are likely to suffer after the defeat of Con-ass or after she declares she is running for Congress.

The worse option for the President is to run for Congress. In the last six months prior to the election, she would have diminished power to obtain compliance from the bureaucracy and the army. Senior military officers would be wavering in their loyalty and looking for a new leader to whom they can transfer their loyalty.

By the end of the year, Ms Arroyo’s presidency would be standing on rapidly shifting sands of bureaucratic support and loyalty. She can continue to refuse to come clean with her plans, but the turning point will start after the Sona. The realignment of loyalties will start there. After the Sona, the President will instantly find out that she has become a lame duck, with no capacity to make things happen or to deliver results.