Signs portend that the administration has entered into one of the most inauspicious periods to change the Constitution. I am not referring only to the unrest triggered by the fast-tracked House Resolution 1109 convening a constituent assembly to amend the Constitution, without the participation of the Senate.
The Catholic bishops have called upon their constituents to take to the streets to protest against the unilateral action taken by the House. Up to this time, it is not clear whether the bishops can mobilize mass action in numbers that would engage the army and the business community—two strategic sectors crucial to the overthrow of government—in actions demanding either the resignation of the government and the withdrawal of their support for it. The planned rallies in the next few days will show if the outrage is growing and the protest movement is gaining. The protest could gain momentum and draw wider participation and bring crowds to the streets on a scale that sparks military intervention in the form of withdrawal of support for the government.
Such a potential for intervention now appears to exist. The government cannot afford to take acts that would provoke further outrage. It is obvious that the House majority has tested the limits of the public tolerance to a reckless political scheme to change the Constitution that is now widely perceived as an attempt to introduce amendments that would include a shift to the parliamentary system of government, which would allow President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to extend her term beyond 2010.
It may well be that HR 1109 has touched the tipping point of the public and, worse, ignited the flash point against repeated assaults on the Constitution over at least the past three years. The Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines has thrown its weight behind the call by opposition leaders for a mass protest. They said the rally today would mark the start of nationwide protests until the President’s State of the Nation Address in July. Jaro Archbishop Angel Lagdameo, CBCP president, has issued a statement calling on the people to join the “peaceful” protest actions. This will be the first time the Church has called its troops to join mass protests since the calls issued by Jaime Cardinal Sin in 2001, when people rushed to the streets in spontaneous protests following the suppression of the evidence in the impeachment trial of President Joseph Estrada.
The House resolution came on the heels of the May 4-7, 2009 Pulse Asia survey showing that 48 percent of Filipinos had little or no trust in President Arroyo while only 25 percent had much trust and 27 percent were undecided. Although the President maintained the same percentage of trust and approval for her performance, the slight decline in the number of undecided respondents increased the number of people who distrusted her. A Pulse Asia survey conducted in February showed that 45 percent did not trust the President, 25 percent trusted her and 30 percent were undecided. In the same period, 46 percent disapproved of her performance, 26 percent approved and 28 percent were undecided.
What’s amazing and adds to the outrage is that the presidential spokesperson, in a display of insensitivity, dismissed the results in this manner: “We’re really not focused on being popular, but rather on providing jobs and completing all the unfinished work.” The presidential mouthpiece said the results were but a “perception that may not necessarily be true.” Apparently, the President has gotten used to ignoring the surveys that have shown her having the lowest approval ratings among presidents since 1986.
Political pragmatism dictates that it is extremely disastrous to tinker with the Constitution when a government’s approval ratings are low. The government needs a broader constituency and public opinion support to help swing the constitutional change being pushed by the President’s allies. There has been widespread criticism among a broad range of institutions, including the Church, trade and chambers of commerce and industry, civil society organizations, of the House resolution. It would be foolhardy to dismiss their expression of outrage as “perception.”
Malacañang’s reaction to the survey results is unlikely to enhance the President’s popularity and calm public unrest, unless it is the Palace’s purpose to fuel discontent.
A usually supportive institution to the administration on economic issues in a time of the global economic recession, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas through Gov. Amando Tetangco has warned that the House campaign to change the Constitution could put more pressure on economic growth. He said investors’ risk perceptions would be affected if changes in the legal framework lead to economic policy shifts. “The way the market will look at this ... will affect economic policies and therefore the performance of the economy,” he added.
Tetangco’s warning followed a statement by Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto that changing the Constitution is likely to disrupt economic activity.
The statements of these economic managers echoed criticisms of the trade chambers. The Makati Business Club and the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry have criticized what they called an “ill-timed” plan to rewrite the Constitution, when the economy is “on the brink of recession.”
