BANGKOK — “Faith in ex-premier down,” said a news item in last Monday’s Nation, an English-language daily paper. “Supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra have lost faith in him,” the news item also said, citing an ABAC national poll of 2,128 respondents on March 13-14, after Mr. Thaksin phoned the “Truth Today” show from outside Thailand, and gave an interview to foreign media.

On Wednesday, I took advantage of my being in Bangkok to renew my acquaintance with Dr. Noppadon Kannika, director of the ABAC Poll of Assumption University (AU), the most widely cited source of scientific survey research in Thailand today. ABAC stands for Assumption Business Administration College, a forerunner of AU, which set up the ABAC Poll Research Center in 1997 (www.abacpoll.au.edu).

The latest ABAC Poll asked respondents whether they believe, don’t believe, or are undecided about believing certain statements of Mr. Thaksin in his most recent phone calls. (Incidentally, he is notorious for persistently phoning to rally his partisans against the present administration, headed by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.) Since I don’t read Thai, I am relying here on the Nation’s report for describing the survey findings:

Almost half of Thais don’t believe Thaksin’s claim that the economy would improve if he returned to power. However, a sizable 40 percent believe this claim.

Slightly more than half don’t believe Thaksin’s claim that Abhisit has political motives for wanting him extradited.

Almost half don’t believe Thaksin’s claim that Abhisit lacks the vision to save the country’s economy.

Slightly more than half don’t believe Thaksin’s claim that, unlike Abhisit, he would not seek a loan, if he were prime minister, to solve the economic crisis. Only 33 percent believe this claim.

Half say that if Thaksin would stop his political campaign, the political situation in Thailand will return to normal.

Half disagree that passing an amnesty law will result in both sides reconciling with each other. But 36 percent approve of an amnesty.

Almost half feel that the Abhisit administration will last for at most one year. But 39 percent think it will last longer than that.

Thus the new ABAC poll finds Thaksin’s recent statements relatively, but not massively, unpopular; 15 percent or more are neutral, in the table Dr. Noppadon showed me. The Nation’s article cited him as saying that Thaksin has enough supporters to make it hard for Thailand to avoid political confrontation and violence.

Surveying happiness. The ABAC Poll regularly asks people how happy they are, on a scale of zero to ten, with reference to certain matters — called domains in the subjective wellbeing biz. A week earlier (March 9, 2009), the Nation reported that ABAC’s happiness index dropped from 6.81 in December 2008 to 5.78 in February 2009. The last survey was done between Feb. 20 and March 7, on a national sample of 4,959 people.

I suppose the happiness index is an average of happiness over several domains. For instance, Thais rated their happiness with “the country’s administrative affairs” at 4.53 last February. But their happiness with “the state of the economy” hit an all-time low of 3.95.

The happiest people are in the North (index of 6.81); the least happy are in Bangkok (5.22). People in villages (6.16) are happier than town folk (5.59). Interestingly, supporters of the Democratic Party, currently in power, have a happiness index of 6.04, whereas their opponents have an index of only 4.93.

Thais go for opinion polling. In 2008, as part of a multi-country project to obtain opinions on the universal declaration of human rights (see www.WorldPublicOpinion.org under the topic “Justice/Human Rights), an ABAC national poll asked, “When government leaders are thinking about an important decision, do you think: (a) they should pay attention to public opinion polls because this will help them get a sense of the public’s views, or (b) they should not pay attention to public opinion polls because this will distract them from deciding what they think is right?”

Seventy-two percent of Thais chose answer (a), 12 percent chose answer (b), and the remainder couldn’t choose either answer. This means Thais are like Filipinos, as found by surveys of the Social Weather Stations poll group with a similar question.

ABAC’s academic freedom. Although AU is a Catholic university, it puts no restrictions on ABAC research, according to Dr. Noppadon. To my probe on family planning in particular, he said that ABAC does surveys on the use of all type of contraceptives, and even about abortion.

The one topic avoided by all pollsters — not only ABAC — in Thailand is the person of the king himself. But it is allowable to ask for opinions about projects of the monarchy; ABAC has done so.

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The Assumption University is one of 10 schools in Thailand run by the Montfort Brothers of St. Gabriel (MBSG), a congregation founded by St. Louis Marie de Montfort in the 18th century. Their first chapel, dedicated to St. Gabriel, in Boulogne, France, is the origin of the name. Six of the schools in Thailand take their name from the Assumption parish in Bangkok, site of their first school, established in 1902; the other four are named after St. Gabriel. The teaching of French and English has done much for the success of the schools.

The AU of Thailand is not related to the Assumption College in the Philippines, which is run by Sisters of the Religious of the Assumption, founded by St. Marie Eugenie of Jesus in Paris in the 19th century. The first Assumption school in Manila was run by Spanish nuns from 1892 to 1898; then English-speaking nuns restarted the school in 1904.

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Contact Social Weather Stations: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph