It's testing time again if there's anything left of the mass movement called People Power ? whether it's more roar than bite.
Beginning today, civil society groups are mounting mass actions nationwide against constitutional change leading up to the interfaith rally called "Stop Gloria's Cha-cha Now," on Friday in Makati City.
Protest organizers claim the rally would be the first mass protest action against Charter change, or ?Cha-cha,? since 2003. According to the organizers, the protest would embrace a broad coalition that includes the Association of Religious Superiors of the Philippines, Church People's Response, the United Opposition, Alyansang Makabayan, Christian evangelist Eddie Villanueva's Bangon Pilipinas, Mike Velarde's Catholic charismatic movement El Shadddai, the EDSA 3 Coalition, Sanlakas, and Coalition for National Transformation, and the disgraced former president Joseph Estrada.
The planned rally is also testing time for the political clout of Velarde's El Shaddai, a demonstration of its influence in blocking the stepped-up campaign of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's forces entrenched in Congress and local administrations to ram through Cha-cha before she serves out her term in 2010. Velarde seems to be overestimating his ability to mobilize People Power for political rallies on the basis of the crowds he can assemble in El Shaddai prayer meetings.
Two years ago, Velarde led street protests against the attempt of the administration-controlled House of Representatives to convene a constituent assembly without the participation of the Senate. Velarde's leadership is credited with being pivotal in solidifying opposition to the Cha-cha movement and stopping its momentum. The opposition coalition embraced Catholic bishops, Villanueva's Jesus is Lord Movement, and several Protestant churches. Velarde warned the House majority, on the eve of a fateful House vote, not to go ahead with a resolution to convene a constituent assembly to change the 1987 Constitution, without Senate participation. This array of forces, composed mainly of religious groups, was described as the "most formidable coalition seen January 2001-EDSA People Power II."
This analogy to People Power II is inappropriate. The galvanizing issue in People Power II was the ouster of then-President Estrada. Today it is constitutional change. This difference is critical in determining whether Cha-cha can fuel sufficient outrage to bring the masses out for this week's rally.
Today, the revival of People Power as a force for change is on the line, but its potency is very much in doubt.
Last week, Velarde urged the President to "use her persuasive powers on her allies" in Congress to stop their attempt to change the Constitution before the 2010 elections. He warned, "If the President will not do it, we will do it in the streets." The question is, will his horde in El Shaddai, claimed to be several millions, rush to the streets to man the barricades of another People Power in response to his call? The warning sounds very much like an empty threat.
Last week, the low-key archbishop of Manila, Gaudencio Cardinal Rosales, weighed in on the Cha-cha debate. In an interview over the Church-run Radio Veritas, he denounced the efforts of administration allies in the House to amend the 1987 Constitution through a constituent assembly. He said the job of amending the Constitution could not be entrusted to those in power because of their vested interests. "Who should do the work?" he said. "Not those in power in Congress. Why? Because they are the ones to be affected. They shouldn't do it." He opposed proposals to postpone the May 2010 elections and extend the terms of all elected officials, including the President, while a new constitution is being drafted. He said amending the Constitution should be done by an elected constitutional convention after the 2010 election.
At the same time, Archbishop Angel Lagdameo of Jaro, president of the Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines (CBCP), called on the President to order her allies in the House to desist from pushing constitutional change through a constituent assembly. Lagdameo said Velarde's statement was "in conformity with what the CBCP has already expressed." He said it was Velarde's "prerogative" to announce that he would lead street protests against moves to amend the Charter before the polls.
It is notable that the polarization over Cha-cha is taking place along the cleavage line of the separation of the State and the Church in Philippine politics. The warnings and interventions of the bishops and the El Shaddai leadership highlight the disarray in the Church in the absence of an authoritative leadership since the demise of the late Jaime Cardinal Sin. Velarde is certainly not Sin's heir as a power broker on behalf of the Catholic Church, issuing warnings to the political establishment. He is ill-suited for that role. A leadership vacuum exists, which Rosales, the CBCP, and even Velarde are trying to fill.
On the issue of Cha-cha, to whom will the Catholic constituency respond? There are too many voices in the Catholic hierarchy and its affiliate organizations. Will Cha-cha provide the galvanizing issue that will fuse diverse religious organizations and anti-regime secular groups, including Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay's United Opposition, and senators opposing the House-sponsored con-ass [constituent assembly] without Senate participation? Are we ready for a People Power revival?
