Analysis
Hopes and fears about Obama in Asia
By Amando Doronila
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:37:00 11/07/2008
Filed Under: Foreign affairs & international relations, Politics, US elections
Philippine relations with the United States have entered a period of uncertainty with the election of Barack Obama as America’s first black president, the first member of an ethnic minority to be elected head of state of any major democracy in the Western world.
This is what makes Obama’s election fundamentally significant as a moment of transfer of power. In fact, it is more significant than the election in 1994 of Nelson Mandela as the first black president of South Africa after being voted into office by his country’s black majority, following the dismantling of the apartheid regime. Obama rode a landslide of votes from a national electorate in which the African-Americans are in the minority, winning support from a large segment of the white majority. This is one dimension of the change that took place in Tuesday’s election.
Foreign relations and the domestic economy policy have been declared by Obama as the topmost items of his administration’s agenda of change.
In his victory statement, Obama said, “It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.” Against this euphoric rhetoric, the pivotal question has emerged: In what form will change take place?
Obama’s victory was greeted with high hopes and expectations in most of Asia which is looking to an administration in Washington that would engage the rest of the world, especially non-white and culturally diverse Asia, in diplomatic dialogue instead of deciding issues of war and peace unilaterally. But fears were also expressed in many parts of Asia that the takeover of Obama would herald the advent of protectionist policies in Washington. Tao Wenzhao, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, said, “I am a bit worried that Obama will take some tough positions on trade issues.” The Wall Street Journal reported that while there was excitement about the change in US leadership in India, there was also worry that Obama would target the outsourcing of jobs in a bid to protect American jobs during a period of recession. During the campaign, Obama had said that if elected, he would discourage US companies from “shipping jobs overseas” by taking away tax breaks.
These fears were shared by key sectors of Philippine business. The Makati Business Club said the local business community was concerned over the direction of the new administration on trade policies affecting the Asian region. The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) echoed India’s concerns over the possible loss of outsourcing of jobs. The PCCI recalled that Obama had said during the campaign that he would penalize US firms “that outsource jobs abroad.” It said, “We will have to see what form that will take, but that is a concern for us.”
On the broader aspects of Philippine-American relations, things do not augur well for warmer relations with the Obama administration. The signals from Washington have been ominous for the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. The new White House staff gave President Arroyo a frosty reception when she tried to congratulate Obama for his victory. Obama was not available to take her call. Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita said, “A phone call was put, but she wasn’t able to speak with him.”
It was the second time Obama rebuffed the President. During her working visit earlier this year, Ms Arroyo sought to talk with Obama, but he wrote her a letter saying: “I am sorry I will not be in Washington, and therefore will be unable to meet with you in person. I look forward to meeting you in the future, and to working with you to advance the critical partnership between our nations.”
Despite these rebuffs, President Arroyo is determined to have an audience with Obama. According to Ermita, meeting Obama will be “high” on the President’s agenda when she flies to the United States next week for a United Nations function. Ermita said the President was “excited” about working with the newly elected president of such a powerful country as the United States. But is Obama equally excited?
In a statement greeting Obama, Ms Arroyo said, “On behalf of the Filipino nation and the Filipino people, I congratulate Sen. Barack Obama on his election. We look forward to closely working with Senator Obama in strengthening regional cooperation in the Asia-Pacific, as well as in addressing the concerns of World War II veterans here and in the United States….”
In diplomacy and bilateral relations, there’s such a thing as reciprocity. From the looks of these developments, it does not appear that Obama is giving as much priority to RP-US relations as the Arroyo administration is giving them. There is no need for President Arroyo to hurry into Obama’s favor. It is enough that that she sent a routine greeting.
President Diosdado Macapagal snubbed an invitation to visit Washington from President John F. Kennedy and moved Philippine Independence Day to June 12 from July 4, after the US Congress failed to legislate compensation for Philippine war damage claims.
There’s much in the strategic security position of the Philippines in Asia-Pacific today that Obama cannot ignore. The Philippines is one of the few countries in Asia where there is a significant US military presence. We don’t need the President’s presence in Washington to make this point to Obama. She should play our cards well and make him work out our relations with the United States on our own terms.
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