MANILA, Philippines - It is clear that the Arroyo administration is in a hurry to sign the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain with the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) tomorrow. The Arroyo administration is bowing out in two years; in basketball lingo, that is the ?last two minutes,? or in movie house parlance, ?ala berde na.? GMA most likely wants to leave this as her legacy, having nothing else to show for her nine years of governance. She would finally be able to bring peace in Mindanao where so many of her predecessors failed.

But will the MOA on ancestral domain really bring peace? I don?t think so, and many other analysts don?t think so either. In fact, it is downright dangerous.

If the Arroyo administration fails to implement the accord, it gives the MILF reason to declare independence. And this administration cannot implement it. It will first need a plebiscite and then?this is the hardest?a change of Constitution and a shift to a federal system of government. I don?t think Congress and the people will agree to this in the next two years.

?This is the first time I have seen a document as such,? said Fr. Eliseo Mercado, a former member of the government negotiating panel with the MILF. ?You have all the elements of a state. That entitles the Bangsamoro to a self-declaration [of independence]. Because it?s all there: you?ve been recognized, you have territory, you have self-determination, your ancestral domain is your birthright, it?s not part of the public domain.?

Camilo Montesa, a policy adviser of the think tank Institute for Autonomy and Governance (IAG), said the MOA already contains the elements of the state?government, people, territory?and ?concedes international recognition.?

North Cotabato Vice Gov. Emmanuel Piñol said that if the Arroyo administration signs the MOA, it would ?open a new door? for the MILF and allow them to claim that they ?have already established a state.?

Mercado said the essence of the agreement is not the expansion of the Moro homeland but its concept. He added that the MOA is not just a ?symbolic recognition? of the Moro people and state but ?a real recognition.? He estimated that the government negotiators have been outwitted and out-argued by the MILF negotiators whom he praised ?for doing a good job pushing their agenda in the peace talks.?

To avoid a situation that would push the MILF to declare independence, Mercado said the Arroyo administration must implement the next steps of the accord, particularly the plebiscite that would expand the ARMM.

Under the MOA, the ARMM, composed of Sulu, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan and Marawi City will be expanded to include more than 700 villages in the provinces of Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Norte, and North Cotabao, ?subject to plebiscite.?

If it fails to realize this, it would give the MILF the excuse to say that the government negotiated in bad faith, which will lead the MILF to go for a declaration of independence, Mercado said.

While GMA may be able to convince Congress to support a plebiscite, Mercado said it would be difficult to change the Constitution that would legitimize the Moro homeland through a shift to a federal system of government. It is impossible to have this shift under the Arroyo administration.

Can GMA deliver on what it promised the MILF? Mercado doesn?t think so.

?The government has no social capital, it is unpopular. If they sign [tomorrow] are they signing this MOA for a feather in their hat but they will not deliver? If there is no intention to deliver, then the government has negotiated in bad faith, and the MILF will be on high moral ground. Then they will declare a Kosovo-type independence,? Mercado said.

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Humihirit pa ang Payumo group in the controversial sale by Banco de Oro (BDO) of its 60-percent share of Maxicare Healthcare Inc. It has sent a brief rejoinder to the BDO reply to my first columns with the request that it be published. This is the last time I will entertain a letter from the Payumo group. In fairness, the BDO is entitled to one more.

The Payumo hirit:

?The central point of BDO?s argument is that we were not able to buy BDO?s 120,000 shares because ?we failed to muster a united stand from the original stockholders for them to purchase the BDO shares under the Stockholders Agreement.? That is tantamount to saying that for a stockholder to exercise his right of first refusal, the unanimous consent of the nearly 100 other Maxicare stockholders is required. That is stretching the interpretation of the Stockholders Agreement to the point of absurdity. We are not required to involve the other original stockholders for us to be able to exercise our right of first refusal; to say otherwise negates the right that attaches to each original stockholder.

?In exercising our right of first refusal, we met all the conditions of BDO?s offer, including furnishing by Dec. 5, 2007 copies of our separate Acceptance Notices to BDO, Maxicare and other stockholders. We even paid and BDO accepted our payment for its 120,000 shares. Yet, BDO seems to believe that, contrary to the clear provisions of the Stockholders Agreement, we do not have the right of first refusal.

?It is true that BDO returned our payment of P176 million (which we received under protest and without prejudice to our exercise of the right of first refusal), but when BDO executed the Deed of Assignment in favor of Go/Pin An on Dec. 13, 2007, it was still holding on to our money, which it held for sometime before returning it. The return of the purchase price cannot affect what has already been perfected; neither can it undo what has already been consummated.?