Social Climate
The US polling scene
By Mahar Mangahas
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:05:00 05/10/2008
STOCKTON, California—I came here from Chicago to visit relatives for a few days before returning home. Incidentally, the proportion of Filipino families with relatives in the United States is one out of five in general, and is one out of two families headed by a college graduate, per an August 2004 SWS survey.
The big news on Wednesday morning was, of course, on last Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, won by Barack Obama, 56-42, in North Carolina, and by Hillary Clinton, 51-49, in Indiana. Local TV news put the counts of committed delegates in the coming Democratic convention at 1,843 for Barack and 1,684 for Hillary. A candidate needs 2,025 to clinch the nomination. Only 217 delegates are still at stake in primaries yet to come; 200 so-called “superdelegates” are uncommitted.
The exit polls The modern way to understand voting behavior is to conduct exit polls, in which people who are scientifically sampled, and then interviewed, give information not only about their vote but also about many other matters, which can then be examined.
Race (as a demographic, not as an issue) mattered much more than gender in these primaries. In both North Carolina and Indiana, a fantastic 9 out of 10 blacks voted for Barack, whereas only 6 out of 10 women voted for Hillary. Gary Langer, polling poobah of ABC News, points out that Barack has won the primaries in all eight states where blacks make up at least 30 percent of Democratic voters—90 percent times 30 percent equals 27 percent, or fully half, of Barack’s total points.
Only a few voters—one out of seven in the two states—admitted that race was an issue to them, but this proportion is significant because, says Langer, only half of them said that they would support Barack in November, while the rest would either not vote or else go for the Republican John McCain.
By long tradition, the Democratic Party is the party that represents the underprivileged, and this is why it is so strong among black voters. Interestingly, Hillary is stronger than Barack among those who are relatively poor, using indicators aside from race. Among the “working class,” she led him by +29 in North Carolina and by +45 in Indiana. (In quirky American and British social science usage, “working class” is between “lower class” and “middle class”, as though it is only people of this class who work. Their surveys use a self-rated class-identification system.)
Hence the Hillary faction has been trying to pin the label of “elitist” on Barack. The higher the voter’s income—which is, of course, correlated with class—the more popular is Barack.
Rural and small-sized towns went for Hillary. Mid-sized towns and cities went for Barack. The youth went for Barack; seniors were for Hillary. College graduates liked them equally. Liberals, as well as newly-registered voters, went for Barack. Those who decided their votes only in the last week went for Hillary.
Whereas the most-cited attribute desired of a candidate was “change”, by far the most-cited issue of the election was “the economy”—by two-thirds in North Carolina, and three-fifths in Indiana. I think this issue is basically anti-Republican, and does not particularly favor either Barack or Hillary (who now advocates a temporary cut in the federal tax on gasoline). The average price of gasoline in the US is $3.60 per gallon now, and may rise to $4.00 by summer. California prices are quite high—yesterday, the price even for Costco members was $3.87, three cents less than for non-members.
The sharply worsening US economy Last Tuesday, ABC News also reported that its Consumer Comfort Index (CCI) had dived to -46, or only 4 points above the record low of -50 in its 22 years of weekly surveys. The CCI has fallen by 26 points since the start of 2008.
The CCI is based on whether the people surveyed see (a) the economy, (b) their personal finances, and (c) the climate for buying things as Excellent, Good, Not Good, or Poor. In the latest poll, 14 percent called the economy either Excellent or Good, but 86 percent called it either Not Good or Poor; the difference 14 - 86 = -72 is the rating of the economy. On the other hand, the rating of personal finances is 47 - 53 = -6, and the rating of the buying climate is 20 - 80 = -60. By averaging -72, -6, and -60, ABC News came up with the new CCI of -46. Like the poll group Social Weather Stations’ net ratings of governance, the theoretical range of the CCI is from -100, if all responses are unfavorable, to +100, if all are favorable.
The current CCI is -20 among Republican voters, -64 among Democratic voters, and -42 among those declaring themselves as independents. It is -43 among whites and -70 among blacks. It is as bad as -74 among those with less than $15,000 income per year, and no better than -10 among the richest people with over $100,000 per year. These demographics work against the Republicans.
The task of the Democrats is to hold together, despite the eventual disappointment of those whose candidate loses in the nomination process. The ABC News poll warns that “anywhere from a quarter to 3 in 10 Democrats said they wouldn’t vote, or would support the Republican” if their favorite did not become the candidate.
Barack is exultant that he is less than 200 delegates away from becoming the candidate. Hillary is continuing the fight. But she promised, on Tuesday night, to work for party victory, no matter who finally becomes the presidential candidate by June.
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ABC News polls are on http://abcnews.com/pollingunit.
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Contact Social Weather Stations: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
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