MANILA, Philippines -- Public satisfaction in the performance of the vice president is one of the core indicators of governance in the surveys by the poll group Social Weather Stations (SWS) that have run quarterly since 1992, and twice a year previously.
VP Laurel (1986-92): Did he favor a coup d’état? Vice President Salvador “Doy” Laurel’s first survey rating, in October 1986, was Net +44 (58 percent satisfied, 14 percent dissatisfied) in the country as a whole, and Net +32 in Metro Manila (49 percent satisfied, 17 percent dissatisfied). His rating in Metro Manila dropped to only +2 in October 1987, after the highly unpopular August 1987 military coup attempt led by Col. Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan, and totally collapsed to -65 in December 1989 after the second major coup attempt.
All of the succeeding satisfaction ratings of Laurel were very poor. In net terms, for the country as a whole, these were at -3 in both April 1990 and November 1990, +5 in July 1991, -5 in November 1991, +4 in February 1992, and finally an awful -10 in April 1992. I think the main reason for his unpopularity was his not being at the side of President Cory Aquino during the coup attempts, and thus appearing too eager to benefit from a successful coup. The apparent disloyalty of Doy to the popular Cory alienated many voters. It was no surprise that he finished last in the field of seven candidates for president in the 1992 election.
VP Estrada (1992-98): steadily popular. In 1992, the top two electoral posts were won by different parties. Joseph “Erap” Estrada, who had been one of only two opposition winners in the 1987 senatorial election, handily won the vice-presidency by 11+ points over Marcelo Fernan, whereas Fidel V. Ramos narrowly won the presidency by less than 4 points over Miriam Defensor-Santiago.
Erap was a very popular vice president. He had a long honeymoon in 1992-94, with satisfaction ranging from 76 to 90 percent, and dissatisfaction only from 3 to 8 percent, giving him net scores of +70 to +87. In 1995-98, satisfaction with him dipped by about 10 points, which he could well afford. His net scores, ranging from +38 to +55 were higher, more often than not, than those of FVR. Erap won the 1998 election for president easily, by 24 points over runner-up Jose de Venecia Jr.
VP Arroyo (1998-2001): Her popularity vanished when she deserted Erap. Coming out 13th in the 1992 senatorial election, and thus winning only a three-year term in office, proved to be a blessing to Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, because it forced her to be a reelectionist in 1995. She topped the 1995 senatorial race, became Jose de Venecia’s running mate in 1998, and proceeded to defeat Erap’s candidate Edgardo Angara very easily, by 27 points. Thus the two top posts were split across parties again.
As vice president, Ms Arroyo was only slightly less popular than Erap when the latter was VP. But when, during Juetenggate, Ms Arroyo quickly resigned from Erap’s Cabinet and joined the anti-Erap rallies, she shocked so many voters that her net satisfaction rating dived from +63 in September 2000 to -4 in December 2000. (With many still giving him the benefit of the doubt, Erap’s rating as president was +19 in September 2000 and +9 in December 2000.) Of course, Ms Arroyo rebounded after EDSA People Power II; but that’s another story.
VP Guingona (2001-2004): the caretaker. After assuming the helm, Ms Arroyo chose senior Sen. Teofisto Guingona as vice president since, at his age, he was not a prospective rival for the presidency in 2004. From March 2001 to June 2004, gross satisfaction in him as VP was tepid, but almost always positive, the exception being a Net -4 in May 2002.
VP De Castro will be accepted in case of a vacancy. Noli de Castro, who had topped the 2001 Senate election, was stronger than Ms Arroyo in the SWS surveys of potential presidential candidates for 2004. It was a good political tactic for her to get him to be her running mate.
Vice President De Castro’s survey ratings have been quite good, though not as high as Erap or Ms Arroyo in their prime. Public satisfaction has been no less than 50 percent; his personal high of 64 percent, or net +41, was just last December 2007. Might his popularity collapse, as happened to Laurel after the coup attempts and to Ms Arroyo during Juetenggate, if he turned his back on Ms Arroyo between now and 2010? For one thing, it is clear that his recent distinguishing between “nakahanda” (being prepared) and “naghahanda” (getting prepared) is meant to lessen appearances of being too eager for the top job. For another, since Ms Arroyo’s survey ratings have been steadily negative for the past three years, perhaps quite a few would not hold it too much against him for getting more prepared.
Definitely, the people fully expect a vice president, whoever she or he may be, to take over if anything happens to the president. When the September 2005 Social Weather Survey, the first done nationally after the “Hello, Garci” scandal broke out, asked respondents if they felt VP De Castro was capable of running the government in case Ms Arroyo left or was driven out of office, 74 percent answered Yes. A further probe found out that one-third of them meant “very capable,” and two-thirds meant “somewhat capable.” Those saying “not capable” were relatively more prevalent in Metro Manila (39 percent) and the balance of Luzon (27 percent). Only 14 percent, in both Visayas and Mindanao, doubted his capability. With VP De Castro’s net satisfaction at +39 then, and at +41 last December, I see no reason why public opinion should be much different now.
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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
