MANILA, Philippines -- The call for a people power insurrection to topple the corruption-shrouded government of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has split the business community over the critical issue of whether the economy can survive a third mass popular revolt in 22 years. The businessmen are not asking whether the country can afford a change of leadership or a political turbulence related to another mass upheaval.

This division in the business community reflects the fault lines that have divided the political sector (between the administration supporters and the opposition) and the bishops of the Roman Catholic Church, a critical element in the success of EDSA People Power I in 1986 and EDSA People Power II in 2001, over the revived civil-society driven movement demanding the resignation of Ms Arroyo.

Independent, private sector economists are themselves divided over the effects of political turmoil generated by the corruption scandals that have rocked the government, mainly the cancelled $329-million national broadband network (NBN) contract with China?s ZTE Corp. One school argues that the economy has developed an insulation against political turbulence and has, in fact, posted robust growth over the past three decades and that it can weather another people power upheaval. The alternative view is that the current political storm over the ZTE corruption scandal, in addition to a number of allegedly graft-ridden government deals, has eroded business confidence and has tended to dampen a sustainable growth spiral.

Support for a people power movement, which has been gaining some momentum since the investigations started in the Senate three months ago, has grown in key sectors of the business community, especially the strategic Makati Business Club and Management Association of the Philippines, which have demanded full disclosure of the kickback allegations in connection with NBN deal and the resignation of Cabinet officials implicated in the transaction.

On the consequences of a new people power on the economy or the ability of the country to survive another street uprising, a Makati Business Club trustee said another people power would not cause heavy political or economic damage if it would result in a radical change in the political leadership, without naming the Arroyo administration. ?We may need people power again because reforms have not taken place and the system rewards the same (groups),? he said.

Retired industrialist Raul Concepcion said the country cannot afford another revolt unless it would solidify the people as it did in EDSA I.

Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr., chair of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, warned that a third people power would be ?almost fatal? to the economy. ?A third would be very bad,? he said. This point of view echoes that of President Arroyo, and the division in the business community plays into her hands.

Stoutly rejecting pressure from the streets to step down, the President said she needed to serve out her term until 2010 to maintain, if not accelerate, the momentum that enabled the country?s gross domestic product) to grow by 7.3 percent in 2007, the highest in three decades. She asked the people to ignore the corruption scandals. She said, ?I am not perfect, but I have worked hard every day to achieve positive and lasting change for the nation.? She warned that the ?world will not forgive an EDSA III,? and that investors would shy away if another people power uprising took place. She revealed that she begins work early in the day and finishes late into the night.

No one dared to tell her that work ethic alone does not compensate for bad governance, which spawns corruption. It is tempting to remind her that the members of the Mafia, or the Cosa Nostra, worked their guts out from dawn till dusk, trafficking in illegal drugs and plotting the murder of gangsters who betrayed them or crossed their path.

The Mafia analogy exposes the flaw of the ?work ethic? argument put across by President Arroyo. No mob can boast of harder work ethic than the Mafia.

Already, governance issues have seeped down to erode business confidence. Deputy Gov. Diwa Guinigundo of the central bank recently told a press briefing that business confidence in the first quarter had gone down, compared with the previous quarter, as a consequence of global and domestic economic woes, as well as political concerns that have escalated since the New Year. According to the central bank?s latest quarterly survey, the business sector had become more cautious in the first quarter due to five aggravating factors: the seasonal production slack, the much-feared global slowdown triggered by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, the concerns over reduced competitiveness of exports because of the peso?s sharp rise, the unabated increase in oil prices, and the political turmoil at home.

An independent economist, Cielito Habito, has said the 7.3-percent growth in GDP amounts to defying the odds. He believes the economy has somehow developed a wall shielding it from political developments. He credits government spending for giving an extra boost to economic growth. And he identifies three drags to growth: the slowing down of the global economy due to the US sub-prime crisis, the faltering tax collection performance of the government and ?the persistent excess baggage of graft and corruption, bad governance, and the consequent social and political unrest that this has been fueling, now reaching a renewed crescendo.?