MANILA, Philippines -- Checking on the people’s opinions about a president’s spouse, at least every so often, is a common global practice in polls on general political matters. This piece is a review of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) Survey Data Library’s numbers on the past three First Spouses. (These numbers are all national proportions; they pertain to respondents aware of who is the First Spouse. The few who were unaware of them were not asked for their opinions.)

First Lady Amelita “Ming” Ramos, 1992-98. Ms Ramos figured in only five SWS surveys: two in 1993, one each in 1994 and 1995, and one in 1998 which was a look-back at her entire six years as First Lady.

In July 1993, 62 percent of the respondents said they were satisfied with Ming Ramos’ “performance” as First Lady, while 8 percent said they were dissatisfied, giving a very healthy Net Satisfaction Rate of +54. Another 29 percent were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (in short, neutral). The balance was Don’t Knows or No Answers.

In August 1993, SWS survey respondents were asked if certain descriptions “strongly applied,” “somewhat applied,” or “did not apply” to Ming Ramos. This type of question is common in US polls, which then treat both the “strongly” and the “somewhat” responses as favorable to the subject.

The first description was “She cares about people like you,” to which 28 percent said it strongly applied, and 54 percent said it somewhat applied, or a very high 82 percent agreement that she was compassionate. To the second description, “She interferes with politics,” 12 percent said it strongly applied, and 43 percent said it somewhat applied, making up half of the sample, i.e., a split opinion. To the third item, “She does a good job as First Lady of the Philippines,” the combined answers of 23 points “strongly” and 54 points “somewhat” made up three-fourths of public opinion.

In another August 1993 item, 10 percent described Ms Ramos’ influence on her husband’s administration as “too much,” 66 percent called it “the right amount,” and 22 percent called it “too little.” This showed a very supportive public, tilted slightly towards wishing the First Lady had more influence.

She was also popular in November 1994, when 55 percent were satisfied, and only 15 percent were dissatisfied, with her performance.

November 1995 -- when SWS used “trust,” rather than “satisfaction,” for its probe -- was a low point for both Fidel V. Ramos (FVR) and Ming Ramos, on account of the severe rice price crisis a few months earlier. Only 34 percent said they had much trust in the First Lady, while 33 percent said they had little trust, taking her Net Trust to virtually zero. (Net Satisfaction in FVR was +2. His all-time low was +1. His ratings recovered in 1996.)

Finally, in November 1998, soon after FVR left office, SWS polled about Ming’s performance in her entire term as First Lady, and found 49 percent satisfied, versus 23 percent dissatisfied.

First Lady Luisa “Loi” Estrada, 1998-2001. In the case of Loi Estrada, SWS has only four trust readings, all taken in 2000. In March 2000, her national trust-distrust score was 42 - 28 or net +14. Interestingly, trust in her was highest among the middle-to-upper ABC classes (net +22), or contrary to the well-known class-pattern of the popularity of President Joseph “Erap” Estrada. Trust was lowest, yet positive, among the very poor Es (net +11). It was +33 in Metro Manila, +17 in the Balance of Luzon, -11 in the Visayas (relatively uncomfortable with the Estradas even at that time), and +17 in Mindanao.

In July 2000, Loi’s trust score was 48 - 21 or net +26 (correctly rounded). In early October 2000, before Chavit Singson made his charges against Erap Estrada, it was a very modest 36 - 25 or net +11; most people felt neutral towards her.

But in December 8-17, 2000, while the historic impeachment trial of Erap was underway, Loi’s score rose to 43 - 23 or net +20. This turned out to be the final SWS survey reading on her, since Erap was toppled by EDSA People Power II a month later. Interestingly, national trust in Loi Estrada was slightly greater in December 2000 than in March 2000, resulting from the confluence of a rise in trust in Balance Luzon (to +34) and Mindanao (to +28), a fall in distrust in the Visayas (to “only” -3), and a large fall in trust in Metro Manila (to -2). The volatile ABC classes (-12) turned their back on her, but both the Ds (+22) and the Es (+26) rallied around her.

First Gentleman Miguel “Mike” Arroyo, 2001-07. SWS has tracked public trust in Mike Arroyo, a.k.a. “FG,” in 21 surveys from January 2001 to December 2007. The reason for having included him in so many survey rounds is that only the first one had a favorable outcome.

In January 2001, those with much trust in FG were 39 percent, and those with little trust in him were 25 percent, for a Net Trust of +14, which was decent. Eight months later, in September 2001, the next SWS poll on FG obtained a disturbing trust score of 28 - 36 or net -8. We decided to track it more regularly, while it was unfavorable -- just as the blood pressure of a hypertensive person should be closely monitored, until it stabilizes at a comfortable level.

Unfortunately, FG’s next trust score, in November 2001, worsened to 21 - 42, or net -21. In the next 18 SWS surveys, this Net Trust ranged from

-16 to -44. Over January 2001 to September 2007, FG’s net trust average was a dismal -31. Yet worse was to come; I will discuss this in my next column.

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Contact SWS: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.

More Inquirer columns

Previous columns:
Social volcanology – 2/16/08
De Venecia’s survey numbers – 2/09/08
Philippines rated ‘Weak’ by Global Integrity – 2/02/08
Some relief in poverty too – 1/26/08
Will education be our future? – 1/19/08
Integrity, the ‘sine qua non’ – 1/12/08
Some 2007 survey lessons – 01/05/08