Social Climate
Some relief in poverty too
By Mahar Mangahas
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 02:29:00 01/26/2008
MANILA, Philippines -- Last Monday’s media release from the poll group Social Weather Stations (SWS), saying “Self-rated poverty declines to 46 percent,” was a bit of good news for the administration. Government commentators eagerly offered ideas as to programs responsible for it, and for a change did not question the SWS measurement procedure.
This procedure has been exactly the same since first applied in a national survey in 1983, when 55 percent of household heads chose “Mahirap” [Poor] as descriptive of their families, when shown a card with the word “Mahirap” printed on one end, the words “Hindi Mahirap” [Not Poor] printed on another end, and a line in-between.
Self-rated Poverty at the national level was surveyed next in 1985, then twice a year in 1986-1991, and then at least quarterly starting 1992, or a total of 79 times so far. It has ranged between a high of 74 percent in July 1985, in the hyperinflation of 1984-85, and a low of 43 percent in March 1987, soon after inflation was reduced to zero (temporarily).
By 1988 inflation was in double-digits, and Self-rated Poverty went over 60 percent. It was at least 70 percent in November 1990, July 1991, February 1992, and April 1994. Over the next six years it dropped slowly, to as low as 54 percent by July 2000. Then, in 2001-2003, it went back up to the 60s.
During 2004-2007, it was mostly in the 50s, but in six out of sixteen quarters it was in the 40s: 46 percent in June 2004, 48 percent in December 2004 and also in March 2005, 49 percent in August 2005, 47 percent in June 2007, and again 46 percent in December 2007. For as long as Self-rated Poverty does not rise above the 40s, it could be said, subject to two qualifications, that some economic trickle-down is occurring in the Philippines.
Qualification 1: belt-tightening is happening at the same time. Though the proportion of households feeling poor has declined, part of the reason is that the meaning of the term “mahirap” to them has not been stable, but instead has been getting worse.
This can be seen in the weak time-trend of a separate indicator, the Self-rated Poverty Threshold, which is the money amount that poor families say they need for a monthly home budget in order not to be poor. Unfortunately, this Poverty Threshold has been sticky over time, despite the continued rise in the cost of living, and as a result its real value has been falling.
In Metro Manila specifically -- where a consumer price index, or CPI, is available -- the median Poverty Threshold was still at P10,000 per month in the December 2007 SWS survey, even though it was already at P10,000 in all four SWS surveys of the year 2000, and had even hit P15,000 a few times afterwards.
For Metro Manila in December 2007, the CPI was 147.5, i.e., the cost of living was already 47.5 percent higher than in the base year, which was 2000. This implies that a December 2007 budget of P10,000 per month was worth only P6,780 per month back in 2000. A real decline from P10,000 to only P6,780 is a drop of over 30 percent. It is equivalent to tightening a belt from a waistline of 30 inches to a waistline of only 21 inches. It shows that poor people are getting more and more accustomed to being thin.
Qualification 2: Hunger has been rising rapidly. Hunger is certainly one form of poverty. It is a physical condition, and therefore it is much less subject to psychological moods than the subjective assessment of being poor. It is a very severe form of deprivation. Of those who consider themselves poor, most do not say they suffered from hunger recently. But of those who recently suffered from hunger, most consider themselves poor.
The SWS surveys show that involuntary hunger among households -- meaning, on account of the households’ having nothing to eat -- has been rising over the past four years (not in each and every quarter, but every year in general). It was at a record-high 21.5 percent last September, but fortunately eased somewhat to 16.2 percent in December. Yet the latest proportion is still five points above the average of about 11 percent since 1998, when quarterly surveying of hunger began.
The spectrum of poverty includes many forms and intensities of deprivation. If, as it appears at present, the numbers within the full spectrum are falling because the superficially deprived have been able to leave poverty, but the numbers of the hungry, at the very bottom of the spectrum, are growing, can one say that society as a whole is progressing?
The answer depends on one’s principles of distributive justice. Personally, I would most like to see the worst-off uplifted ahead of those who are merely badly-off. Yet I will grant that social progress occurs if many of the badly-off are uplifted, and some of the worst-off are left behind. What I do not accept is that there is social merit in the rich getting richer without helping the poor at the same time.
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The SWS Annual Survey Review. Next Friday Jan. 31, from 2 to 4 p.m., at the Asian Institute of Management, SWS will present a review of key survey findings of the past year, in cooperation with the AIM Policy Center and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. It will cover the quality of life, the quality of governance, the 2007 election experience, and public opinion on social, economic, and political issues. It is open to the public; no charge. For reservations, contact Monique Avila at Tel. +632 7501010, extension 2109, or mavila@aim.edu.
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Contact Social Weather Stations: www.sws.org.ph or mahar.mangahas@sws.org.ph.
More Inquirer columns
Previous columns:
Will education be our future? – 1/19/08
Integrity, the ‘sine qua non’ – 1/12/08
Some 2007 survey lessons – 01/05/08
Statistics for justice- 12/29/07
Happy or sad on Christmas?- 12/22/07
A Filipino definition of social justice - 12/15/07
Agrarian reform through peaceful means – 12/08/07
Walking 1,600 km for social justicev – 12/01/07
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