Decisive turn
WILL CEBU miss, by the proverbial inch, the fate of Yemen’s cities? “In Sana, the price of water bolted tenfold in some areas,” the New York Times reports. “[It] could become the first capital ever to run out of water.”
Wedged between Mexico and Guatemala, Mayan cities crumbled between 800 and 950 AD. Food systems collapsed and epidemics erupted when rainfall dwindled to less than half of normal, Science 2012 states.
Twelve miles east of the Taj Mahal, the ghost city of Fathiphurshkari molders. Your footsteps echo in empty palace halls. Cawing crows swoop over deserted balconies. The city died when water cisterns ran dry.
Saudi Arabia pumped its fossil (no-replenishment) aquifers dry, Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute notes. Riyadh harvested last year its last wheat crop. Starting 2012, some 30 million Saudis—the equivalent of Canada—will swap oil for imported grain.
There is no substitute for water. “Twenty liters per person each day is the threshold requirement … to meet basic human needs,” UN’s Human Development Report states. Here, about 72 percent of water, from rivers or ponds, is unfit for human use.
The Philippines is second to China in diarrhea-related deaths among children below five. Just washing hands can save lives. But first, you must have water. Hand-washing rates are three times higher in households with piped water. It is obscene “if people cannot drink water without courting disease or death,” author Sandra Postel writes.
On Wednesday, the Cebu provincial government and an Ayala-led consortium cobbled together a P702-million joint investment agreement that would allow the daily delivery of 35 million liters of potable water to a parched metropolis and northern towns.
For the first time ever, surface water from Luyang River in Carmen town will be tapped. Until today, 9 out of 10 cubic meters of water, quaffed in a metro area of 12 cities and towns, had been siphoned from narrow limestone underground reservoirs.
Overpumping of these aquifers allowed seawater to seep in “more than four kilometers inland,” noted the Inquirer (8/19/11). “This contamination wrecked irreversibly the city’s main source of water. Who will answer for this crime?”
Of 136 cities, Cebu is the most water-stressed. The province has only 2-percent forest cover left. In-migration, industries and trade quadrupled the demand for water in less than half a century.
In mid-1990, the sustainable capacity of aquifers in Cebu City was exceeded 3.6 times and in Mandaue, 7.4 times, an Ayala Land study found. If no reforms are adopted, Cebu’s groundwater will turn undrinkable. “It will no longer be a question of supply but include the politically volatile issue of quality.”
In 2007, water demand continued to pull away from supply, Cherry Ann Lim notes in “Vision of Thirst.” It continues to do so, but at an accelerating pace. Withdrawals are double what small reservoirs recharge.
For decades, the stark alternatives to over-reliance on underground wells were: (a) total collapse of aquifers a la Yemen and Fathiphurshkari, or (b) draw surface water from outside Metro Cebu.
Mayor Tomas Osmeña’s three terms offered a window of opportunity to start reversing the slide into disaster. He instead opted for denial. “What water shortage?” he’d dismiss warnings from Asian Development Bank and Delft University to the Water Resources Center.
Osmeña bridged multiplying needs by overpumping already depleted aquifers. He signaled ecological policy insolvency last year by hiring a water diviner. “Lola Choleng is 100-percent accurate,” he told Cebu Daily News. But voodoo didn’t resolve a crisis which he insisted didn’t exist.
Population, industries and commerce shoved Metro Cebu’s borders 40 kilometers south and north. They render obsolete Cebu City’s kingpin pretensions to be “first among equals,” or primus inter pares.
“History is a relentless master,” John F. Kennedy said. “It has no present, only the past rushing into the future. To try to hold fast to the past is to be swept aside.”
“We will not be trapped into similar inaction,” Cebu Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia vowed when she signed her province’s first-ever surface bulk water agreement with Manila Water Consortium’s Gerardo Ablaza.
In this “Private-Public Partnership” project, Capitol put money where its mouth is. It plunked down P49 out of every P100 for the project; the Ayala-led firm put in P51. But potable water will already be pumped into towns that the pipeline reaches.
Taps will be fully opened late next year. Even then, there’d still be a 15-40-percent shortfall in Cebu water supplies.
An advance, not to exceed P35 million, will be given to Carmen town led by Mayor Martin Gerard Villamor. He has safeguarded watersheds and water use prudently—so far. “Will he shun doles and instead use the windfall to conserve this resource into the future?” Sun Star asked. “Maintain that record and Villamor will tower among Cebu’s leaders day after tomorrow.”
Today’s project started from the first red flags raised, in 1975, by Herman Van Engelen of the Water Resources Center. This SVD priest-scientist retired in July 2011, a year before the launch of Cebu’s project. Prophets often yield to those who build on their vision.
Governor Garcia and the Ayala group started what seems a decisive turn away from faltering aquifers for surface water. It is a good beginning. “But a moment is not a destination,” Arnold Toynbee cautions. “And a voyage is not a harbor.”
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