Three and one-half strongmen
That Time magazine cover showing four “strongmen”—Vladimir Putin of Russia, Viktor Orban of Hungary, Recep Erdogan of Turkey and Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines — is inaccurate. Mr. Duterte is only half a strongman.
Putin seized by force Ossetia and the Crimea from Georgia and the Ukraine, respectively. His goal is to reconstruct the defunct Soviet Union.
Orban has defied the European Union policy on migrants and, in an initiative with racial overtones, sealed his country’s borders to “protect European civilization” from refugees coming from Third World countries.
Erdogan, in a magnificent display of how to deal with a fellow bully, authorized the Turkish Air Force to shoot down a Russian warplane that overflew Turkey’s airspace. From all indications, the Russians have since stopped their intrusions into Turkey.
Had Erdogan imitated Mr. Duterte, instead of having the Russian intruder shot down, Turkey’s foreign minister — Alan Cayetano-style — would have told the world that the Russian warplanes were on innocent passage over Turkey’s airspace, and that it was wrong to be harsh on Russia. The Turkish official spokesperson, meanwhile, a la Harry Roque, would state that the missiles in the Russian warplanes were not pointed at Turkey.
Mr. Duterte could be the first national leader to abandon territory without even a whimper since the modern nation-state system was established during the Napoleonic Wars. By stating that he is willing to “negotiate” the West Philippine Sea dispute, the President has allowed our country to be used as a pawn in what is, clearly, a propaganda ploy by Beijing.
Xi Jinping’s alleged threat — that any mention of the West Philippine Sea dispute means war — has become an official foreign policy line of the Philippines. However, omitting this dispute in our negotiations with Beijing means that our ongoing bilateral talks is a sham. It has the same credibility as the negotiations between Jose P. Laurel of our Third Republic and Japan’s Premier Hideki Tojo, which led to our declaring war against the United States and the Allies in World War II.
Mr. Duterte recently said that China will not allow him to be removed from power. But any regime change in the Philippines will come from within, precipitated perhaps by Mr. Duterte’s refusal to assert our claims in the West Philippine Sea.
Consequently, China’s guarantee that it will not allow Mr. Duterte to be removed from power may mean that, in the event of any popular move to unseat him, the Duterte-Xi partnership will replicate the Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin duo in Syria. Putin has propped up the unpopular Assad regime, including deploying Russian military units in the Syrian civil war. The Philippines, under the Duterte-Xi partnership, could thus be the next Syria.
Under our Constitution, all treaties and agreements must be submitted to the Senate for ratification. The Duterte-Xi agreement is far-reaching, allowing China to interfere in local affairs. However, it appears that this agreement is beyond our constitutional processes. It also appears to be the product of secret diplomacy, violating the tenet of US President Woodrow Wilson that, in a democracy, “(International) agreements must be the product of covenants openly arrived at.”
Enough said about our “independent” foreign policy.
* * *
Hermenegildo C. Cruz served as Philippine ambassador to Chile and Bolivia in 1989-1993.
