VP Leni’s rating is OK
The net satisfaction ratings of all of the top five officials of government—the president, the vice president, the Senate president, the speaker of the House of Representatives, and the chief justice—were slightly lower in December 2016 than in September 2016, as polled by Social Weather Stations.
The drops in the ratings were so small that none of them amounted to a downgrade, according to SWS terminology. The rating of the President stayed Very Good (between +50 and +69), the ratings of the next two stayed Good (+30 to +49), and the ratings of the last two stayed Moderate (+10 to +29).
Since the width of each grade is 20 points, a single downgrade requires, on the average, a decrease of 20 points. The actual requirement would depend on the closeness of the original rating to the lower boundary of the grade. A double downgrade definitely requires a drop by more than 20 points.
Describing the drop of Vice President Leni Robredo’s net rating from +49 in September to +37 in December as “steep” (for example, in Rappler, 12/28/16) is a gross exaggeration. The 12-point drop did not produce even a single downgrade.
Those familiar with the history of vice-presidential ratings would recognize that a 12-point drop is very small compared to the 49-point fall of VP Salvador Laurel from a Good +44 in October 1986 to a Neutral -5 in October 1987 (those were the first two VP ratings ever recorded by SWS). That was a double downgrade.
Laurel was obviously hoping that the August 1987 military coup attempt would succeed in toppling President Cory Aquino. He later finished last in the 1992 election race for president.
A drop of 12 points is tiny compared to the sudden 67-point collapse of VP Gloria Macapagal Arroyo from a Very Good +63 in September 2000 to a Neutral -4 in December 2000. That was a triple downgrade.
Arroyo had unilaterally resigned from the Cabinet of President Joseph Estrada and then joined the demonstrations calling for his resignation over the “juetenggate” scandal. She was fortunate in that Estrada abandoned the Palace on account of People Power II.
The lesson from the downgrades in 1987 and 2000 is that Filipinos strongly disapprove of a VP aspiring to take over from the president in less than six years.
The recent circumstances of Leni Robredo were quite different. It was clearly the President who forced her out of the Cabinet, whatever his reasons. Reading the slight drop in her survey rating as a punishment by the people is misinterpreting the data.
In four of the last six elections, the people have chosen a vice president from a party different from that of their preferred president: Estrada with Fidel Ramos, Arroyo with Estrada, Jojo Binay with Noynoy Aquino, and Robredo with Rodrigo Duterte. All they expect is for the VP to be ready to fill in when constitutionally necessary. They don’t expect the party differences to seriously obstruct the cooperation of the two officials.
Widespread hopes for the New Year. The December 2016 Social Weather Survey also found a record-tying 95 percent looking forward to the coming New Year of 2017 with hope, rather than with fear. This tied the record of hope for the New Years of 2003 and 2012. SWS has regularly tracked this item for 17 years.
The hope for the New Year is correlated to the expectation of being happy at Christmas. Like the Christmas expectation, it is not related to politics. We Filipinos have too much common sense for that.
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